Saturday night in Los Angeles, California, at the Crypto.com Arena, Joshua Van defends the UFC Flyweight Championship against former titleholder Alexandre Pantoja in the Main Event of UFC 331. The co-main event of UFC 331 features a highly anticipated Lightweight fight between Arman Tsarukyan and Mauricio Ruffy.
Check out my best bets and full breakdown below ahead of Saturday’s UFC 331 event.
Best Bets for UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2
- Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline (+114): Although Joshua Van is on a fantastic run, Alexandre Pantoja’s combination of championship experience, toughness, and versatility gives him the edge in this fight. Van enters this bout as champion, but Pantoja is still the best Flyweight in the world until he is beaten fair and square.
- Arman Tsarukyan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-140): Arman Tsarukyan has won three of his last four fights by submission or knockout and has displayed a newfound aggressiveness. Mauricio Ruffy presents a tough challenge, but Tsarukyan has the skills to limit his productivity.
- Iwo Baraniewski Round 1 (-110): Iwo Baraniewski has quickly become one of the top rising prospects in the UFC. With his athleticism, power, and volume, he should be able to finish Alonzo Menifield quickly.
UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 Best Bets Breakdown
Alexandre Pantoja Moneyline (+114)
Over nine months after suffering a major injury against Joshua Van at UFC 323, Alexandre Pantoja is set to make his return on Saturday night. Although his record lists it as a “loss by KO/TKO,” it wasn’t a legitimate loss, as Pantoja’s injury occurred in the first 30 seconds of the contest. Before that, Pantoja hadn’t suffered a loss since 2020, as he won eight consecutive fights. Since their first matchup, Van scored a fifth-round knockout over Tatsuro Taira in May.
Both fighters in this contest are 5’5″, with Pantoja having a two-inch reach advantage (67″ vs. 65″). Van has the clear edge on the feet in this contest. Van averages 8.43 significant strikes per minute at a 57 percent rate, which is impressive. Pantoja absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (3.88 vs. 5.82). The former champion, Pantoja, excels on the ground, landing 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes with 47 percent takedown accuracy. Although Van has a 75 percent takedown defense, he hasn’t fought someone as talented and experienced as Pantoja.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Van is a -135 favorite with Pantoja as a +114 underdog. Even though Pantoja is coming off an injury, he still hasn’t been beaten throughout a full fight in over six years. Normally, when Pantoja gets an opponent to the ground, he either controls them for five rounds or scores a submission. Getting the former 125-pound king at +114 in this contest is an excellent value play, considering many still consider him the best Flyweight in the world, as he lost his title due to an unforeseen situation.
Arman Tsarukyan to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-140)
Arman Tsarukyan is making his return in a high-stakes five-round Lightweight contest against Mauricio Ruffy. Tsarukyan has won five consecutive fights since his last loss in June 2022 and has emerged as a top contender at 155 pounds. Ruffy is off to a good start in 2026, with two wins, both coming by knockout in the first two rounds over Michael Chandler and Rafael Fiziev.
Tsarukyan is the more complete fighter in this contest, averaging 3.85 significant strikes per minute and 3.26 takedowns per 15 minutes. Ruffy’s biggest x-factor is his tremendous knockout power. But with Tsarukyan’s versatile skill set and elite defense on the feet, he should be able to slow Ruffy down.
Although Tsarukyan started his UFC career with three decision wins, he has been more aggressive lately. Five of Tsarukyan’s last seven victories have come by submission or knockout. Three of his previous four wins were also by finish. With a rematch between Justin Gaethje and Ilia Topuria possibly next, Tsarukyan must have an impressive win to put himself in the conversation for a title shot. I expect Tsarukyan to come out aggressive, searching for a finish against Ruffy. Since Tsarukyan is a -340 favorite, I’m backing him to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at -140.
Iwo Baraniewski Round 1 (-110)
Like Ruffy, another fighter off to an incredible start this year is Iwo Baraniewski. Baraniewski is 2-0 with two first-round knockouts in 2026. Since Baraniewski began his MMA career in September 2023, he has won nine fights, all by first-round finish. At UFC 331, Iwo Baraniewski is facing Alonzo Menifield in a three-round Light Heavyweight bout. Menifield is 3-1 in his last four fights, with his latest win coming by first-round knockout in May.
Even though Menifield has power of his own, it is unlikely he can go toe-to-toe with Baraniewski, who fights at an extremely high pace with an enormous volume of punches. Baraniewski averages 11.35 significant strikes per minute compared to Menifield’s 3.84. In this fight, Baraniewski is a -250 favorite with Menifield being a +205 underdog on DraftKings Sportsbook. All nine of Baraniewski’s wins have come in the first round. Also, two of Menifield’s last three losses came in the first round. With that being the case, I’m taking Baraniewski to win in Round 1 at -110.
