Dalton Kincaid Receiving Yards Pick for Bills vs. Lions

Dalton Kincaid and the Buffalo Bills produced a narrow 36-31 victory over the Houston Texans in Week 1. They will look to build on this effort in Week 2 against the Detroit Lions on Thursday Night Football.

Looking at the odds, the Bills enter as 4.5-point home favorites with -230 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Lions are +190 to pull off the upset, with the game total set at 54.5 points.

There are plenty of ways to get involved across DraftKings Sportsbook. You can check out the game preview and plenty more on DraftKings Network. But here’s my top Dalton Kincaid prop bet for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup.

Dalton Kincaid Best Receiving Yards Pick vs. Lions

Dalton Kincaid Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Buffalo generated plenty of headlines after adding D.J. Moore this offseason. Josh Allen has lacked top wide receiver talent, and the former Bears’ standout was an immediate upgrade to the roster. But Week 1 made it clear that Dalton Kincaid remains a focal point of the offense. The Pro Bowl tight end led the Bills with five receptions for 130 yards in the season opener. 

The Week 2 matchup is a great chance to build on that against a Detroit Lions defense that was wildly underwhelming in its season opener. The New Orleans Saints pushed Detroit to the limit, winning 31-30 in an overtime thriller. Led by Tyler Shough in his 10th career start, the Saints marched up and down the field and put up 469 total yards. Shough threw for 410 yards, and the team’s tight ends were heavily involved. Juwan Johnson pulled in three receptions on seven targets for 54 yards and a touchdown, while Noah Fant caught four of his eight targets for 33 yards and a score of his own.

Kincaid plays an even bigger role in the Bills’ attack than either New Orleans tight end, and will be eager to attack this vulnerable spot in the Lions’ defense. He has tallied 1,692 receiving yards and nine touchdowns in his career and ranked second on the team in receiving yards last year. The 26-year-old averaged 47.6 receiving yards per game last season. The Utah product has faced Detroit once in his career, pulling in four receptions on seven targets for 53 receiving yards in December 2024.

Detroit’s defense will eventually settle in, but this is a difficult ask on a short week against a team where the tight end is even more important to the offense. Count on the Bills having Kincaid circled as a clear part of their game plan for this Week 2 opener. Health has been a big factor in Kincaid’s failure to reach its potential, but injuries aren’t an issue this early in the season. He has looked as spry as he has in quite some time, and it showed in his Week 1 production. This season could be a full breakout for Kincaid, and this matchup is another springboard opportunity. Count on the 51.5 receiving-yard line to be too low, and for the Bills’ pass catcher to blow past it for the second straight week.