The Buffalo Bills have established themselves as one of the NFL’s premier teams, posting double-digit wins and making the playoffs in seven straight seasons. Unfortunately, Buffalo never made the Super Bowl, losing twice to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Games. That’s better than losing four straight Super Bowls, right? RIGHT?
The common denominator has been quarterback Josh Allen, one of the most lethal players in the league. He throws. He runs. He jumps. He pumps. In 129 career games, Allen has thrown for 222 touchdowns while adding 81 on the ground. That’s the fastest any player has hit 300 combined touchdowns. Aaron Rodgers previously held the record at 134 games.
Sean McDermott was a defensive-minded, conservative coach who couldn’t take the Bills to the promised land. As a result, the team elevated offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach, while Pete Carmichael slotted in as offensive coordinator. Josh Allen is 30, so the time is now.
In Week 1, Buffalo eeked out a thrilling 36-31 win over the Texans, with Allen throwing a 34-yard touchdown pass to Joshua Palmer with 1:36 left to seal the comeback. Allen finished 20-for-29 for 334 yards and two touchdowns, while rushing six times for 23 yards and two scores. Houston has one of the best defenses in the league and one that Allen had historically struggled against, so things are on the up-and-up.
The defense wasn’t so good, though. Houston racked up 381 total yards, including 124 on the ground. The Texans dominated time of possession, 36:17 to 23:43. That said, Buffalo forced two fumbles and racked up three sacks. The pressure rate was 12th-best in Week 1, while the blitz rate was middle-of-the-pack.
Detroit was dominating the New Orleans Saints in Week 1, building a 21-0 lead, but Tyler Shough balled out and led the comeback to force overtime. The Saints matched the touchdown the Lions scored in overtime but couldn’t convert the two-point conversion.
Shough finished 35-for-56 for 410 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Detroit’s secondary was a question mark coming into the season, and Week 1 answered it: it’s bad. That spells trouble against Allen and the Bills’ passing attack.
Jahmyr Gibbs was awesome, rushing 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo allowed two rushing touchdowns in Week 1, but only 3.9 yards per carry. With this game outdoors, I’d imagine the Lions will want to ground-and-pound for as long as they can to keep Allen off the field.
That said, the Bills are using a new defensive scheme this season, and they broke down against Houston. Detroit has talented weapons in the passing game, and there will likely be more than a few chances to exploit mistakes.
This could become a back-and-forth affair.
Buffalo enters as a 4.5-point home favorite with -238 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. Detroit is a +195 underdog, with the game total set at O/U 54.5 points.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (DET at BUF)
Captain’s Picks
Josh Allen ($17,100 CP): Gibbs. Allen. Allen. Gibbs. Gibbs is now the bona fide guy in the Detroit backfield, no longer splitting the action. In his career, he’s topped 30 FPTS eight times with three performances over 40 and a high of 58.4. Allen is guaranteed to start with the ball in his hands every snap and is lethal both through the air and on the ground. Give me Allen at home.
UTIL Plays
Dalton Kincaid ($6,800): Kincaid caught five of six targets for 130 yards in Week 1, good for 21 FPTS. The oft-injured, underutilized former first-round pick played in 72% of the snaps and was often blanketed in single-man coverage. Detroit allowed the two Saints tight ends to catch seven of 15 targets for 87 yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo has too many weapons to double Kincaid, so he should continue feasting.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($12,000): Twenty-nine carries and five targets in Week 1. He’s the bona fide weapon in the backfield, and there is no splitting the work, with Sione Vaki second on the depth chart. It’s not whether Gibbs will score points, but rather how many. He is the only player on the slate with a higher ceiling than Allen. Amon-Ra St. Brown is close, but he doesn’t have a 50-burger on his resume.
Tyler Bass ($5,000): Bass should have plenty of opportunities here, as the Bills should move the ball up and down the field. In Week 1, Bass converted all three extra points and all three field goals, good for 13 FPTS.
Fades
James Cook III ($9,400): Cook will have some monster games this season. Not sure this will be one of them. The path of least resistance is obviously through the air for Buffalo against a porous Lions secondary. With Josh Allen scrambling instead of checking down to Cook while rushing in red-zone touchdowns, the opportunities will likely be diminished. In large-field tournaments, it may not be a bad idea to slot in Cook instead of Allen if he does score touchdowns. This would also adversely affect Allen lineups.
Outcome
Points will be scored in this one, but Buffalo at home with Josh Allen under center should be too much for Detroit.
