Slowly but surely, the Seattle Mariners are making one final charge up the AL West standings. After taking the final two games of a three-game set against the Boston Red Sox, Seattle has some momentum. The Mariners also have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in baseball.
Seattle’s easy finish will begin tonight with a four-game home set against the Athletics, who have the worst run differential in baseball and are at risk of losing 100 games for the 19th time in franchise history, the most of any team.
The series opener is set to begin tonight at 9:40 p.m. ET. Jack Perkins will start for the Athletics, and the Mariners will turn to rookie Kade Anderson.
Let’s break down this divisional battle with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Athletics at Seattle Mariners Best Bets
- Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+104): Both of Seattle’s last two games have ended in multi-run wins, and the Athletics are a much worse team than the Red Sox. They’ve had 16 multi-run losses since the start of August alone.
- Kade Anderson U6.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs Allowed (-105): Statcast numbers aren’t everything, but they suggest that Anderson has already presented the raw stuff to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he wouldn’t have a 1.06 ERA for Double-A Arkansas if that wasn’t true.
Athletics at Seattle Mariners prediction, preview
The Athletics hovered around .500 through mid-June, but since then, it’s been collapse after collapse. Since reaching 38-38 on June 16, they’ve gone 16-48, including a league-worst 13-31 mark since the All-Star break. On the bright side, they’ve sustained a respectable offense even after the All-Star break, ranking 11th in OPS despite losing Shea Langeliers, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer and Jacob Wilson to injuries in late July and early August. However, the Athletics haven’t been able to pitch at all, as their starters have posted a 5.64 ERA and their relievers a 6.43 mark since the Midsummer Classic. Scott Blewett, acquired at the trade deadline, is their only pitcher with at least five innings pitched and a sub-3 ERA. Of their seven pitchers with at least 10 starts this season, only one (J.T. Ginn) has a sub-4 ERA and two (Perkins and Jeffrey Springs) have ERA’s north of 6. Pitching at Triple-A Sutter Health Park isn’t an easy task, but the Athletics’ staff was less atrocious there last season.
Similarly, momentum is clearly not in Seattle’s favor. The Mariners have been favored by FanGraphs’ methodology to eventually win the division for most of the season, but with just an 18-25 record since the All-Star break, that promise hasn’t come to fruition. Across that span, Seattle has had baseball’s fourth-worst offense, although that mark has risen to merely its 11th-worst in the last 15 days as 2025 AL MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh (1.269 OPS and eight home runs in his last 15 games) has remembered how to hit. With Raleigh no longer a negative asset and Randy Arozarena continuing his stellar season, the Mariners might have just enough offensive juice to make some noise in a potential playoff series. However, Seattle has also had baseball’s second-worst pitching staff since the Midsummer Classic, suffering 11-0, 22-0, and 19-2 losses. George Kirby and Bryan Woo have both had some bad performances as of late, as have relievers Michael Rucker and Seranthony Domínguez. The Mariners’ defensive numbers are slightly inflated by position players’ disasters in those blowout defeats, but they clearly have a lot to resolve if they want to make a postseason push.
Perkins first stepped into a bulk role at the start of June, but he hasn’t found much success. In 12 starts and three bulk relief appearances, he’s pitched to a 6.82 ERA, and his FIP suggests that, despite giving up just two total earned runs in his last three outings, he really hasn’t turned a corner. It might not be all bad, though, as his 4.01 xERA sits in the 52nd percentile and his .230 xBA in the 64th. He’s actually had plenty of strengths, as his 85th-percentile chase rate and 65th-percentile whiff rate should be a problem for an aggressive Seattle team that often fails to make contact. Perkins’ main issue is the fact that he’s struggled to keep the ball down, ranking in only the 11th percentile in ground ball rate and the 26th percentile in barrel rate, but the Mariners have hit grounders at an above-average clip and barrels at a below-average clip, and the pitcher-friendly conditions at T-Mobile Park should help him escape damage in a way he’s unable to in West Sacramento. Perkins has somewhat extreme home-road splits, recording a 7.04 ERA at Sutter Health Park and a 5.58 mark at all other venues.
Anderson has shown plenty of flashes in his first two starts. The 22-year-old has tossed 10.0 innings so far, giving up five earned runs while walking five and striking out eight, good for a 4.50 ERA and a 5.60 FIP. He’s also coming off of a ridiculous Double-A campaign in which he made 18 starts and recorded a 1.06 ERA, ending his stint at that level with four consecutive scoreless outings. Even at the MLB level, he’s gotten pretty unlucky; according to Statcast, he has just a 2.28 xERA and a .143 xBA, both of which would rank in the top ventile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. The LSU product also sports what would be among the league’s best chase rates, and although he hasn’t produced a lot of whiffs or strikeouts, the Athletics find air at a high rate. While he had some issues with walks in his first two MLB starts, he averaged just 1.3 per nine innings in Double-A. He also would have a top-quintile hard-hit rate and average exit velocity if he qualified, helping quiet the Athletics’ relatively powerful bats. Splits aren’t really worth looking into since he’s only made one start at T-Mobile Park, but he has a 1.02 home ERA this season between the majors and the minors, and the Athletics have had baseball’s worst road offense.
Athletics at Seattle Mariners pick, best bet
Best Bet: Seattle Mariners -1.5 (+104)
Both of these pitchers have gotten a bit unfortunate, but for as bad form as Seattle’s bullpen is in, it’s still better than the Athletics’ staff, and Anderson has elite talent in a way that Perkins does not. The Athletics have lost five of Perkins’ last seven outings by multiple runs.
Strong Lean: Kade Anderson U6.5 Hits + Walks + Earned Runs Allowed (-105)
I’m expecting tonight to be the first superstar outing of Anderson’s career. His talent is undeniable, and his Statcast numbers suggest that he’s close to figuring it out at the MLB level. This injured Athletics offense that relies on Sutter Health Park to put up numbers is the perfect opportunity for Anderson to pick up his first MLB win.
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