Series between the top two teams in any division are always critical, especially in September, when both teams know where they stand with the playoff picture crystallizing. This four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Chicago Cubs, as well as a three-game set next week, will help settle the NL Central.
So far, Milwaukee has won two of three games to extend its lead to nine games, potentially rendering next week’s series almost irrelevant. If the Brewers win tonight, it’ll put a further dent in Chicago’s already slim hopes of making up the deficit.
The series finale is set to begin tonight at 7:15 p.m. ET. Milwaukee will turn to Logan Henderson, and newly-acquired Kevin Gausman will toe the rubber for the Cubs.
Let’s break down this pivotal affair with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs Best Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-115): The Brewers won both on Tuesday and last night, and Henderson should have a fairly sizable advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Gausman. Milwaukee has a better road record than Chicago does at home.
- Over 5.5 Extra Base Hits (-110): Both Gausman and Henderson rank below the league median in hard-hit rate, and these offenses have both been white-hot as of late. Additionally, the Brewers will likely be without three of their best relievers after Jacob Misiorowski didn’t give them the expected length yesterday.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs prediction, preview
The door has never really been open for Chicago to catch up to the Brewers atop the division, but since the All-Star break, Milwaukee has shut it with force, going 28-16 (a 103-win pace across the full season). Across that span, it has posted the league’s fourth-best offense, as Jake Bauers has continued his breakout campaign. Jackson Chourio, after slumping at the end of July, has slashed .325/.396/.567 since the start of August, and youngsters Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara have both gotten hot as of late. The Brewers’ starters have slumped slightly, posting an ERA north of 4 since the All-Star break, and even likely Cy Young Award winner Jacob Misiorowski had a rough outing last night. However, Milwaukee’s bullpen has put up an ultra-stingy 2.73 mark since the Midsummer Classic, as Trevor Megill still hasn’t given up an earned run since July 22, DL Hall is back in the picture after missing nearly two months with a pectoral strain, and Abner Uribe hasn’t allowed a run since June 19. Antonio Senzatela has also settled down after a rough start with the team. The Brewers could be the most complete team in baseball.
For its part, Chicago has been pretty solid since the All-Star break too. The Cubs have gone a respectable 24-20 in that span, including a sweep over the Los Angeles Dodgers and a 17-3 win in the series opener, but Milwaukee has simply been too good. Chicago’s strong form has allowed it to open up a five-game lead over the San Diego Padres in the Wild Card race regardless. The Cubs have had baseball’s best offense since the Midsummer Classic by a huge margin, as Pete Crow-Armstrong has wrested control of the NL MVP race from Shohei Ohtani and Alex Bregman has quietly slashed .299/.365/.621 in the second half of the season. Furthermore, both Chicago’s rotation and bullpen have improved since the All-Star break, with both units pitching to a sub-4 ERA. The Cubs made two swings for starters at the trade deadline, bringing in Gausman and Clay Holmes, and Holmes has been especially stellar. Earlier in the summer, Chicago also acquired reliever Aaron Civale from the Athletics, and he’s helped stabilize the bullpen, registering a 1.54 ERA in 11 appearances. The Cubs’ all-in moves might not result in a division crown, but they’ll be a difficult out in the postseason.
Henderson has proven a more-than-capable No. 2 behind Misiorowski, recording a 2.48 ERA in 14 starts this season. After rejoining the rotation full-time at the start of July, Henderson has pitched to a 2.36 mark across nine starts, giving up more than two earned runs in a game just twice, and his last three starts have been even better than Misiorowski’s. Advanced numbers back up his elite basic profile; his 2.73 xERA is a 94th-percentile figure, and his .202 xBA ranks in the 88th percentile. Additionally, Henderson pairs a top-decile strikeout rate with a top-decile walk rate, an asset against a Chicago team that has earned the most free passes this season. The right-hander also has above-average chase and whiff rates, effectively combating a team with among baseball’s best contact skills. Although he ranks in only the 29th percentile in barrel rate because of his struggles to induce grounders, the Cubs have actually found the barrel at a below-average clip. It won’t be easy slowing down Chicago at Wrigley Field, where it’s posted baseball’s best home OPS, but Henderson has a sub-3 ERA on the road.
Henderson should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Gausman. Gausman had been an ace in recent seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, recording a 3.16 ERA and finishing third in AL Cy Young Award voting in 2023, but he’s pitched to just a 5.14 mark in his first five starts with the Cubs, allowing three or more earned runs thrice. Although advanced numbers suggest that he’s gotten a little bit unlucky, a 3.92 xERA is still significantly worse than Henderson’s mark. Still, his top-quintile chase and walk rates should be an effective counter for a Brewers lineup that has operated the most patient plate approach in baseball and drawn the second-most walks. His 65th-percentile whiff rate could also pose some problems for a team with some of the best contact skills in the sport. However, he ranks in just the 46th percentile in hard-hit rate, a stat in which Milwaukee ranks seventh, and his struggles to force grounders should help mitigate the Brewers’ biggest weakness. The location splits also aren’t in his favor; although Milwaukee’s offense has been slightly worse on the road this season, Gausman has an 8.88 career ERA in six starts at Wrigley Field.
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs pick, best bet
Best Bet: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-115)
Although the Cubs’ offensive performance is rather impressive, especially at Wrigley Field, it’s just hard to bet against a pitcher who’s given up only one earned run in each of his last three starts and has registered the win in nine of his 14 starts.
Strong Lean: Over 5.5 Extra Base Hits (-110)
These offenses rank first and 12th in slugging percentage since the All-Star break. Gausman has been occasionally prone to damage, especially with Chicago, and the Brewers’ bullpen could be slightly less effective tonight, given that Senzatela, Uribe, and Aaron Ashby are all likely to be unavailable.
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