The Red Sox (75-65) are in a bit of a rut, losing five of their last seven games. Still, Boston has its eyes set on winning the American League. That means beating its AL East rivals down the stretch, including the Orioles (69-71). Baltimore, despite its middling record, is just 1.5 games out of a playoff spot. Can the Birds earn a crucial victory tonight at Camden Yards?
The Red Sox are favorites (-125) over the Orioles; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Boston and Baltimore on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Orioles pick, best bet today
- Red Sox vs. Orioles under 8.5 runs (-114): Bennett alone is capable of securing this under against an O’s lineup that can’t hit southpaws. Young isn’t too shabby either, looking to dominate against a depleted Boston lineup. Expect a close, low-scoring affair between these two rivals.
Red Sox vs. Orioles prediction, preview
Jake Bennett has been a pleasant surprise for Boston, emerging from relative obscurity to become a rotation regular. Last weekend, he tossed six scoreless innings on the road vs. the Yankees. Over 16 starts this season, the rookie has recorded a 3.27 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 74 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). The 25-year-old’s most impressive skill is command; he enters today’s game with a minuscule 1.7 BB/9 ratio. Interestingly enough, he’s performed even better on the road this season (3.02 ERA). Bennett does a decent job at limiting quality contact as well; his 66th percentile barrel rate (6.5%) and 64th percentile hard-hit rate (36.7%) are proof.
That knack for inducing soft contact could help out this evening. The Orioles are ninth in home runs (169) and first in hard-hit rate (42.7%); limiting their ability to drive the ball makes this offense far less intimidating. In addition, the O’s average an American League-best 3.74 walks per game. What this group struggles to do is string together base hits. Baltimore’s .235 batting average is only good enough for 26th in the majors. When Bennett last faced the O’s on July 22nd, he tossed 5.2 innings of three-run ball. In addition, the club has posted baseball’s fifth-lowest OPS at home against left-handed pitching (.660).
Brandon Young isn’t a household name by any means, but he’s become one of Baltimore’s best starters. During 130.1 innings pitched, he’s put up a 3.38 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 103 strikeouts (7.1 K/9). It’s fair to say that the 27-year-old has gotten somewhat lucky; his 4.32 FIP suggests some negative regression is overdue. With that being said, Young comes into Thursday’s contest with some momentum. During his last time out, he tossed seven frames of one-run ball vs. the Athletics. The fly ball specialist also benefits from the spacious dimensions of Camden Yards. He held the Red Sox to three runs over 5.2 innings back in April.
If there was ever a time to face Boston’s lineup, it’s right now. As previously mentioned, the team has begun to cool off following a scorching-hot midseason surge. Over their last ten games, the Red Sox have scored the sixth-fewest runs in baseball (38). This offense is the opposite of Baltimore, a team that can’t hit lefties at home. Boston has an American League-worst .661 OPS against right-handed pitching on the road. Struggling catcher Adley Rutschman, traded from the Orioles last month, is dealing with an elbow injury. To make matters worse for the visitors, slugger Willson Contreras (hamstring) is on the injured list while center fielder Cedanne Rafaela (quad) is day to day.
Best Bet: Red Sox vs. Orioles under 8.5 runs (-114)
The Red Sox are struggling at the plate recently, only exacerbated by injuries to several key batters. Young isn’t an ace, but he’s good enough to keep this group in check. As for Bennett, we’ve reached the point where the youngster deserves some benefit of the doubt. Against an Orioles lineup that has been ineffective vs. lefties, Boston’s talented southpaw should toss another gem.
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