By this point, with just over a month remaining in the regular season, four of the MLB’s six divisions look to be more or less decided. In each of the NL divisions and the AL East, the current division leader has at least a two-in-three chance of ultimately claiming the division title.
Contenders in the AL West and AL Central will face off in the rubber match of a three-game set tonight when the Texas Rangers (who are half a game behind the Houston Astros atop the West) travel to face the Chicago White Sox, who lead the Central by 2.5 games over the surging Cleveland Guardians. If each team wins its division, they’re likely to meet each other in the Division Series.
First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. MacKenzie Gore will toe the rubber for Texas, and Sean Burke will start for Chicago.
Let’s break down this potential playoff preview with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox Best Bets
- Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-119): Whether the White Sox end up holding off the charging Guardians for the division title remains to be seen, but I don’t trust the Rangers’ offense, and Burke should have the slightest of edges over Gore in the starting pitching matchup.
- Munetaka Murakami 2+ Strikeouts (Batter) (+106): Murakami has been in a huge slump, striking out multiple times in 12 of his 23 games this month, and while he’ll surely figure it out eventually, a lefty-on-lefty matchup is not the game in which he’s going to turn it around.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox prediction, preview
“Never too high, never too low” has been the story of the Rangers’ season so far. Fittingly for a team that finished 81-81 in 2025, Texas has never been more than three games above .500 or more than six games below .500, and it’s never trailed in the division by more than three games or led it by more than two. Since the All-Star break, though, the Rangers have fallen off slightly, going just 17-20, and their offense has floundered, posting the league’s sixth-worst OPS. Joc Pederson, who had a torrid end to July, has started to cool off slightly, as has Wyatt Langford. But Texas has stayed mostly afloat through solid pitching, as it ranks 12th in ERA this month, with Cal Quantrill stabilizing the back end of the rotation amid Nathan Eovaldi’s injury absence. The Rangers’ bullpen has bounced back somewhat from a shaky July, as trade deadline acquisition Chase Silseth has been good and All-Star Jacob Latz has continued to hold it down on the business end. Texas might not have the offensive firepower to make a playoff run, but its reliable pitching means it should never be out of any game.
This season will be a success for the White Sox no matter what happens for the rest of the season, but a postseason appearance is certainly attainable. Chicago has held mostly steady after the All-Star break, going 19-18, and it’s still had the league’s ninth-best offense in August despite a miserable month for Munetaka Murakami. In his stead, Tristan Peters, the White Sox’s other rookie All-Star, has posted a 1.081 OPS since the calendar flipped to August. Chicago’s pitching, on the other hand, has been a mixed bag this month; its starters have been atrocious, putting up a 5.79 ERA, but its relievers have held down the fort and limited the damage. Trade deadline acquisition Luis Castillo’s form hasn’t improved after his brutal start to the season with the Seattle Mariners, and even Burke, the nominal staff ace, hasn’t been immune from trouble, but 23-year-old Hagen Smith has emerged as a reliable set-up man in his first seven MLB appearances and Grant Taylor has taken over Seranthony Domínguez’s closing role nicely.
Gore, a former third overall pick and a first-time All-Star last season, has been solid but unspectacular for the Rangers, pitching to a 4.26 ERA in a league-high 27 starts, but at least he’s been trending somewhat in the right direction since the Midsummer Classic, posting a 3.32 mark in seven appearances since then. Advanced numbers paint a pretty positive picture of him overall; his 3.80 xERA ranks in the 61st percentile, and because of his volume, he’s produced 83rd-percentile pitching run value. In particular, he’s been pretty good at generating chases and whiffs, and while the White Sox operate a relatively patient plate approach, they do find air at the third-highest rate. However, because Gore is relatively reliant on his four-seam fastball, he’s prone to major damage, sporting bottom-quartile barrel and hard-hit rates, and thanks to its young, powerful infield, Chicago ranks among the league leaders in both stats. Additionally, the splits aren’t in Gore’s favor; he’s posted a pitiful 5.42 ERA on the road this season, and the White Sox have been slightly more effective at home.
Burke had been pretty reliable all season, going on a 15-start stretch between May 20 and August 11 in which he pitched to a 2.37 ERA, but he’s taken a small step back in his last two starts, allowing four earned runs in each (to the hot Detroit Tigers and New York Mets offenses). Still, advanced numbers suggest that he should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Gore, as he has a 71st percentile expected ERA. He also ranks near the top quartile in both strikeout and walk rate, and Texas strikes out relatively frequently without drawing many free passes, even though it doesn’t chase very frequently. Burke struggles with some of the same things that Gore does, as he sports just a 35th-percentile average exit velocity, and while the Rangers do hit the ball pretty hard, they hit grounders at a high rate, mitigating Burke’s biggest weakness. He’s performed slightly worse at home, but I expect a bounce-back performance after his two consecutive mediocre efforts.
Texas Rangers at Chicago White Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Chicago White Sox Moneyline (-119)
I don’t know if I trust either of these teams in the postseason, but I like Chicago slightly better overall, especially given Gore’s poor road form. The fact that Texas is 7-1 in Gore’s last eight starts is noteworthy, but the White Sox are 9-3 in Burke’s last 12.
Strong Lean: Munetaka Murakami 2+ Strikeouts (Batter) (+106)
Unfortunately, I’m going to have to fade Murakami, who’s had a disastrous month, batting just .149 and posting 12 games with two or more strikeouts from his 23. He’s also posted an OPS 232 points lower against lefties than righties this season.
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