Postseason hopefuls are set to meet today in Phoenix. The Cubs (76-57) are a near-lock for October, looking to make their return to the World Series. An elite offense and capable starting pitching has Chicago looking like a dark horse contender. It’s a bit more complicated for the Diamondbacks (70-63), currently on the outside looking in. Still, at just one game back of a wild card spot, Arizona has plenty to play for over the next few weeks. Which of these clubs will come out on top this afternoon?
The Diamondbacks are favorites (-106) over the Cubs; the over/under is set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Chicago and Arizona on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet today
- Diamondbacks ML (-106): These are the two best offenses in baseball against left-handed pitching. Keeping that in mind, this bet comes down to which arm is superior. In that regard, the answer is clearly Rodriguez. At home, the Diamondbacks make sense to back as slight favorites.
Cubs vs. Diamondbacks prediction, preview
Matthew Boyd will get the nod today for Chicago. Following an All-Star campaign in 2025, things have been a bit more difficult this season. The veteran has been hampered by injuries and inconsistent performance on the mound. He comes into this one with a decent, but unspectacular, 4.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. The southpaw is a true fly ball pitcher, which has led to the occasional long ball (1.4 HR/9). If anything, Boyd has been somewhat fortunate so far. He places within the 30th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
Arizona’s offense can’t be discounted, even with Ketel Marte (knee) sidelined. Five different Diamondbacks batters with at least 100 plate appearances have a wRC+ of at least 105. Since the start of August, this group has scored the seventh-most runs in baseball (107). Even more promising, the club has done a phenomenal job of hitting against southpaws. The Snakes own a .796 OPS against left-handed pitching, second-best in all of baseball. Franchise cornerstone Corbin Carroll could enjoy a monster performance tonight. The outfielder is slashing .338/.431/.591 against lefties this season.
The D-backs will hand the ball to their ace tonight, Eduardo Rodriguez. After a difficult 2025 campaign, the 33-year-old has bounced back in dominant fashion this season. Through 155.0 innings pitched (26 starts), he’s notched a 2.61 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 110 strikeouts (6.4 K/9). The All-Star’s peripherals, similar to Boyd, aren’t anything to write home about. However, he’s one of baseball’s better pitchers when it comes to limiting home runs (0.8 HR/9) and walks (2.8 BB/9). E-Rod has also delivered a 77th percentile hard-hit rate (34.7%). That ability to limit baserunners and quality contact could come in handy on Wednesday.
Chicago comes into this one with one of the sport’s premier lineups. MVP candidate Pete Crow-Armstrong is the headliner, but several big bats have made an impact in the Windy City. In addition, they’ve delivered an MLB-best .807 OPS against left-handed pitching. That’s not exactly a positive sign for Rodriguez heading into today’s matchup. With that being said, Arizona’s hurler could keep these hitters off balance. As previously mentioned, he’s done an exceptional job at preventing walks and homers. The Cubs rank within the top three teams in both categories.
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-106)
It’s never easy to fade this Chicago offense, especially when facing left-handed pitching. However, E-Rod is more than capable of keeping the Cubbies in check today. On the other side, I don’t trust Boyd on the road against a capable D-backs lineup. Arizona, 39-29 when playing at home, has what it takes to secure a much needed win this afternoon.
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