Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for the night-half of Wednesday’s all-day slate: Bobby Witt Jr. and Gunnar Henderson.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Witt Jr. | +453 | Witt comes into Wednesday’s contest in Toronto in possession of a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.382) and a 95th percentile expected slugging rate (.506). He’s also got fairly neutral handedness splits, which is important with the Jays planning on using a bullpen game. Logic points to Simeon Woods Richardson in a “bulk” role. SWR owns a first percentile strikeout rate (13.3%) and a third percentile xERA (5.75). |
| Gunnar Henderson | +549 | I’d be lying if I said the main draw wasn’t the presence of Michael McGreevy. The contact-oriented RHP has had his issues with left-handed bats all season long, surrendering a 10.7% barrel rate and a 44.1% hard hit rate within the split. For all Henderson’s struggles in 2026, he does at least have 20 long balls to his name. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Bobby Witt Jr. 1+ Home Run (+453)
While Witt’s raw home run total (16) has been slightly disappointing in 2026, the phenom still checks all the boxes under the hood. Witt comes into Wednesday’s contest in Toronto in possession of a 96th percentile expected wOBA (.382) and a 95th percentile expected slugging rate (.506). He’s also got fairly neutral handedness splits, which is important with the Jays planning on using a bullpen game this evening. The daunting Spencer Miles awaits Witt in the top of the first inning, but after that, it’s unclear who the All-Star might see. Logic points to Simeon Woods Richardson in a “bulk” role, which would be advantageous to Kansas City, as SWR owns a first percentile strikeout rate (13.3%) and a third percentile xERA (5.75) this season. Hilariously, Witt is 0-for-11 in his career against Woods Richardson, but I think that stat is due for a change.
Gunnar Henderson 1+ Home Run (+549)
It’s a little weird to say, but this pick has almost nothing to do with Gunnar Henderson. Well, I guess that’s not entirely true. It has a lot to do with the fact that Henderson is left-handed. It also doesn’t hurt that even in a lost campaign, the former All-Star has managed 20 home runs in his 592 plate appearances. Yet, I’d be lying if I said the main draw wasn’t the presence of Michael McGreevy. The contact-oriented RHP has had his issues with left-handed bats all season long, surrendering a 10.7% barrel rate and a 44.1% hard hit rate within the split. On the whole, McGreevy owns a seventh percentile xERA (5.31) and a ninth percentile whiff rate (19.4%). He’s the type of pitcher you want to target in this market. The fact that St. Louis’ bullpen sports a 5.16 ERA since the All-Star break doesn’t hurt, either.
