Barring a late collapse, the Milwaukee Brewers’ grasp on the NL Central is relatively secure, but given the disparity between their home and away records this season, clinching home-field advantage throughout the postseason could be a goal, and they’re just one game ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers in that quest.
If it wants to stay ahead of the Dodgers, Milwaukee has to keep the pedal to the metal as it opens a three-game road set against the New York Mets, who are out of playoff contention but have been better as of late.
First pitch in tonight’s series opener is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Kyle Harrison will start for the Brewers, and the Mets will counter with Zac Thornton.
Let’s break down this matchup with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Best Bets
- Under 7.5 (-118): This game is set up to be a pitcher’s duel between Harrison, who’s pitched like an ace in every MLB ballpark he’s started in this season, and Thornton, who’s been a silver lining in a disappointing New York season.
- William Contreras 2+ Total Bases (+126): It’s a small sample size, but Contreras has been seeing the ball extremely well right now, posting an OPS north of 1.000 over his last seven games and recording two or more hits in five of them.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets prediction, preview
A sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres earlier in the month aside, Milwaukee has been a model of consistency, following up its .615 winning percentage in the first half of the season with a .629 mark so far in the second half. The Brewers have maintained their top-10 offense, as Jake Bauers has maintained his unexpected breakout in his age-30 season and Brice Turang is on track to better his 14th-place MVP finish from last season. Plus, their young core of rising prospects — Jackson Chourio, Cooper Pratt, and Luis Lara — have all shown varying degrees of flashes, and baseball’s top overall prospect, Jesús Made, could be a candidate for a September call-up. But Milwaukee’s core is its pitching; it’s had the second-best staff in baseball for the season and the third-best in August, and it ranks in the league’s top four by both rotation and bullpen ERA. Jacob Misiorowski is enjoying one of the best pitching seasons in MLB history, and even though trade deadline acquisitions Dustin May and Antonio Senzatela haven’t been great so far, it’s hardly mattered. The Brewers have run through contender after contender, and with Abner Uribe set to return soon and Brandon Woodruff possibly on track for a playoff cameo, Milwaukee should feel confident that it can beat any team.
This New York season has perhaps been best defined by tumult. A 12-game losing streak early in the season effectively condemned the Mets to months of meaningless baseball, and they eventually fired Carlos Mendoza. Under Andy Green, things have turned around, as they’re 25-25, including — miraculously — a 12-8 record in August. This month, New York has actually had baseball’s fifth-best offense despite Juan Soto missing the entire month with a calf strain, as Carson Benge (.338/.388/.595 slash line since August 1) has quietly put together a Rookie of the Year-worthy campaign and Francisco Lindor (.821 OPS since the All-Star break) remembered how to hit. Additionally, while the Mets blew up their staff at the trade deadline, they’ve still had an above-average overall mark in August, as rookie Nate Lavender has yet to give up a run in his eight appearances, Kodai Senga has reinvented himself as a lockdown closer after struggling mightily in a starting role, and the ever-entertaining Jefry Yan has been solid more often than not.
Harrison’s exploits have gone somewhat under the radar this season thanks to Misiorowski’s brilliance, but he’s been a genuine co-ace, posting a 2.84 ERA in his 20 starts. In fact, excepting a 2.1-inning, eight-run disaster against the Athletics at Las Vegas Ballpark, he’s given up three or fewer earned runs in each of his starts, including two or fewer 16 times. The southpaw has been brilliant by virtually all metrics, ranking in the 85th percentile by both expected ERA and pitching run value. He has solid chase and whiff rates, and New York ranks near the league average in both stats. Additionally, he pairs a 92nd-percentile strikeout rate with an 80th-percentile walk rate, making him a strong matchup against a Mets team that frequently strikes out and rarely walks as is. He is occasionally prone to giving up hard hits, as he ranks in the 39th percentile in average exit velocity and New York has some powerful bats, but I trust his track record and I trust the Brewers’ elite fielders. He does have pretty extreme home-road splits, but after removing the game in Las Vegas, his road ERA is still a respectable 3.46, and the Mets have been slightly worse at home than on the road.
For his part, Thornton has had a pretty strong rookie campaign. He entered New York’s full-time rotation right before the All-Star break and pitched 13 scoreless innings across his first two starts, and while he’s cooled off a little bit since then, a 4.00 mark across five starts with no more than three earned runs allowed in any start is solid. However, according to advanced numbers, he might be due for some regression, as he ranks in the bottom quintile in both expected ERA and expected batting average. Additionally, he’s really struggled to miss bats, sporting just a 10th-percentile whiff rate and an 18th-percentile strikeout rate, and given that Milwaukee is a disciplined team with solid contact skills, that could be problematic. Thornton has done a good job avoiding walks, which could counter one of the Brewers’ biggest strengths, but he’s given up a lot of hard hits, and Milwaukee ranks sixth in average exit velocity. To be fair, the splits should be in his favor, as he’s performed similarly at home and on the road and the Brewers have been significantly worse on the road.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 (-118)
While each team’s offense has been in pretty strong form, I mostly trust both of these starting pitchers. Advanced numbers suggest that Thornton is due for some regression, but his solid defense behind him should allow him to limit the damage.
Strong Lean: William Contreras 2+ Total Bases (+126)
Contreras hasn’t been as good as his brother Willson, an AL MVP candidate, but he has two or more total bases in five of his last seven games, posting a 1.106 OPS across that span. He’s slugged .576 against right-handed cutters this season.
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