The Guardians (66-66) hold a slim half-game advantage for possession of the American League’s final wild card spot. At just 2.5 games behind the White Sox, Cleveland can realistically win its third straight AL Central title as well. That means taking care of business between now and September against beatable opponents. Among those teams, the last place Angels (52-80) stand out. Can Los Angeles play spoiler at home this evening?
The Guardians are favorites (-140) over the Angels; the over/under is set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Cleveland and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Angels pick, best bet today
- Los Angeles Angels +0.5 – First 5 Innings (-130): Williams is a workhorse, capable of spinning a gem tonight. Still, the same can easily be said of Ureña against a lackluster Cleveland lineup. Don’t be shocked if the Angels are tied, or even winning, after five innings on Tuesday.
Guardians vs. Angels prediction, preview
Gavin Williams has established himself as a go-to arm for the Guardians this season. Over 154.2 innings (26 starts), he’s posted a 3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 201 strikeouts (11.7 K/9). Those numbers are backed up by stellar peripherals. He ranks within the 81st percentile or better in fastball velocity (97.3 MPH), chase rate (33.7%), whiff rate (31.5%) and strikeout rate (32.4%). Williams has done a good job at limiting walks (2.8 BB/9), although he does give up the occasional home run (1.5 HR/9). He’s surrendered two earned runs or less in five of his last six outings.
There’s no reason to assume that the Angels will be the team that rakes against Messick. For starters, the team is in the midst of a massive slump. Since July 1st, they’ve scored an MLB-worst 148 runs. It’s not even particularly close; the Yankees (164) are the second-lowest team during that stretch. To make matters worse, Los Angeles also ranks at the bottom of the league in OPS against right-handed pitching (.681). As previously mentioned, Williams generates plenty of swings and misses. The Halos are striking out at an American League-worst average of 9.42 times per game.
Still, Williams isn’t the only quality hurler toeing the slab this evening. Walbert Ureña has risen from relative obscurity, emerging as Los Angeles’ best pitcher this season. Through 112.2 innings of work (21 starts), he’s notched a 2.80 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 109 strikeouts (8.7 K/9). To boot, the right-hander has been terrific when playing at pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium (2.27 ERA). Unlike Williams, the Dominican does a great job at limiting the long ball (0.6 HR/9). However, he is prone to handing out some walks (4.7 BB/9). Fortunately for the youngster, a 92nd percentile ground ball rate leads to frequent double plays.
Los Angeles’ newest standout doesn’t face the most difficult challenge on Tuesday. Cleveland, for all its pitching prowess, doesn’t offer much at the plate. This group is putting up 4.02 runs per game, third-fewest in baseball. Newly acquired outfielder Jo Adell (138 wRC+) has helped out, alongside top prospect Angel Genao (112 wRC+). Still, this group is lacking in firepower. That’s especially true in the power department, where the Guardians have hit the league’s third-fewest homers (124).
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels +0.5 – First 5 Innings (-130)
There’s no question that Williams has the kind of stuff that can keep Los Angeles’ hitters off balance. Still, it’s the Guardians that come into Tuesday with the worse performing lineup. Ureña has been a force on the mound, especially when pitching at home. The Angels wield a horrendous bullpen, making this a difficult group to trust late in games. Still, the Halos are good enough to keep pace during the first five innings of tonight’s contest.
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