The Boston Red Sox continue to climb the AL East standings, and soon, they may overtake a rival for second place in the division. As the gap out there narrows, the chasm between their NL East counterparts is only growing as the Miami Marlins try and stay in the hunt for a Wild Card berth. Tonight at LoanDepot Park, these two clubs duke it out with first pitch set for 6:40 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive in with a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Red Sox vs. Marlins game courtesy of odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Red Sox vs. Marlins prediction, preview
To the surprise of nobody, the Red Sox are coming off another winning streak and have taken four consecutive contests to improve to 72-59 on the year with a +101 run differential. They’re still an MLB-best 26-11 since the All-Star break, leading the sport in total runs scored over this span. The Marlins have faltered over the same stretch – at 15-20 since the break, they’ve fallen to 67-65 with a +19 differential and are four games shy of the Wild Card.
LHP Payton Tolle (8-6) starts for Boston this evening. The second-year southpaw has an excellent 3.08 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP, also bringing plus-strikeout potential. He’s struck down 134 batters in 120.0 IP, good for a 27.7% K% with a 6.8% BB%. He’s been one of the best pitchers for this team this year even despite underperforming a 2.68 xERA that ranks in the 95th percentile, so he’s arguably been unlucky, even with an elite chase rate and above-average grades in most Sabermetrics.
RHP Tyler Phillips (3-6) gets the start for Miami here. The 28-year-old carries a nice 3.67 ERA into this one with a 1.37 WHIP and 79 strikeouts over 100.2 IP. His K% is just 18.2% with a high 9.7% BB%, and his average exit velocity of 90.2 mph ranks in the 15th percentile of MLB arms. He’s overperformed an xERA of 4.81 quite drastically. Granted he’s also seen his role shift some this year, beginning out in the bullpen before starting most of the time over the last couple of months.
The Red Sox are absolutely smashing at the plate right now. Their .731 OPS on the year ranks eighth but sees a bump to a staggering .807 since the break, so it’s no wonder they lead the MLB in runs scored over this span. They’re slashing .272/.350/.457 with a whopping .185 ISO, also keeping the K% way down at just 19.7%. Truly, things couldn’t be going much better in Boston at the moment – against right-handers, they still slash a respectable .249/.320/.399 for a .719 OPS, too.
The Marlins, however, are not enjoying the same success at the dish. Since the break, they have an OPS of just .691 that falls 19th in baseball, seeing the ISO drop to .135 as well. For a team that already lacked significant power, that’s a meaningful downturn. With the bats colder than they were for much of the campaign, Miami now sits 24th in runs scored since the break as well. Plus, the club gets the lesser of the platoon splits with a .239/.322/.382 slash line and .704 OPS vs. left-handed pitching on the year.
Red Sox vs. Marlins pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Red Sox as a -139 Moneyline favorite on the road tonight, while the Marlins enter as +130 underdogs at their own ballpark. The total is set at only seven combined runs.
Tolle has been absolutely locked in this month. Across four starts in August with 25.0 combined IP, he’s kept his ERA down at 2.16 with a 1.00 WHIP, striking out 31 hitters. He’s allowed two, one, zero, and three earned runs in those starts and threw 6.0 frames or more in three of the four, so he’s delivering some of his best stuff at the moment. Given Miami’s struggles against left-handed pitching and the general lack of power in this lineup, especially as of late, I’m quite comfortable targeting under 1.5 earned runs allowed from Tolle here. He should toss a great game and I don’t think there’s much threat to this under thanks to his own form and the lack thereof for the Marlins.
