The race for a first round bye in the National League looks like it’s going to come down to the wire, with the Milwaukee Brewers holding pole position at 78-48 and the Los Angeles Dodgers close behind at 76-51. The 74-52 Atlanta Braves are in hot pursuit.
After dropping three of four to the Brewers last week, the Dodgers have had the opportunity to make up ground with a series against the cellar-dwelling Colorado Rockies, who, for their part, are seeking to avoid their fourth consecutive 100-loss season.
Tonight’s series finale is set for 8:40 p.m. ET. Los Angeles will turn to Roki Sasaki, and Kyle Freeland will toe the rubber for Colorado.
Let’s break down this divisional showdown with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 Alternate Run Line (+106): The Dodgers’ offense can come and go, but they scored at least seven runs in both of the first two games of this series, and I expect more fireworks against the struggling Freeland.
- Andy Pages 1+ Extra Base Hits (+110): Pages has clearly seen the ball well as of late, posting a .969 OPS across his last 12 games, and Freeland has conceded a .909 OPS to right-handed batters this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies prediction, preview
Even in their best seasons, the Dodgers tend to have some random shaky moments. This season, that malaise came right after the All-Star break, when they lost seven games in a row in early August, but they’ve since bounced back with seven wins in 11 games. Los Angeles has struggled offensively this month, but “bad” for the Dodgers still means 15th in OPS, and Shohei Ohtani still leads the NL in OPS. Los Angeles definitely isn’t without its flaws, as losing catchers Will Smith and Dalton Rushing has left that position an offensive black hole, and Kyle Tucker has continued to struggle mightily, but a mid-August swoon isn’t exactly detrimental to the Dodgers’ World Series hopes. That’s especially true as long as Los Angeles’ starters (which include Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, and the newly-acquired Tarik Skubal) remain healthy, and after an absolutely brutal June and July, the Dodgers’ relievers have stabilized somewhat in August, though they (especially Edwin Díaz) certainly haven’t been great. Kris Bubic, acquired at the trade deadline from the Kansas City Royals, should make an impact once he returns from injury.
The Rockies have been playing meaningless baseball for months, but this season has to be considered a success, given that they went 43-119 last season. Colorado has maintained a top-five offense for pretty much the entire season, and while its best hitter, Hunter Goodman, is currently on the IL, TJ Rumfeld and Cole Carrigg have both had tremendous rookie seasons. Plus, 2016 first overall pick Mickey Moniak is finally starting to live up to some of his potential. The issue, per usual, is that the Rockies have had a bottom-five pitching staff all season, but even there, there have been some positives: Tomoyuki Sugano has proven a solid signing, and Brennan Bernardino has a sub-3 ERA out of the bullpen. Colorado also signed former All-Star closer Jordan Romano after a brutal start to the season with the Los Angeles Angels, and he’s stabilized the back end of the bullpen. The Rockies clearly have a lot of work to do still, but their rebuild is finally headed in the right direction.
Sasaki has found his stride since the All-Star break. The ultra-talented Japanese right-hander has been inconsistent all season, but across his last five starts, he’s registered a 2.10 ERA in 30.0 innings of work, giving up just eight runs (seven earned) on 21 hits and 12 walks while striking out 28. His season ERA is now down to 4.46, the same mark he posted last season as a rookie. Overall, his Statcast profile is a mixed bag, as while his 4.29 expected ERA is better than his actual mark, his 15th-percentile pitching run value still leaves room to be desired. At least he’s had notable strengths this season, as while high chase and whiff rates aren’t a necessity against Colorado, which employs an extremely aggressive plate approach, is never a bad thing. Plus, although Sasaki still struggles somewhat with hard contact, ranking in the bottom quintile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity, the Rockies rank in the league’s bottom four in all three stats and are now without their best power hitter in Goodman. The location splits are slightly against Sasaki, as he’s been worse on the road and Colorado expectedly better at Coors Field, but he was okay the only prior time he pitched at this venue (4.2 innings, three earned runs).
He should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup over Freeland, whose production has gone downhill ever since he finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting in his second season (2018). This season, he has a 6.27 ERA in 22 starts, including 14 earned runs in nine innings across two starts against Los Angeles, but to be fair, he’s given up one earned run in each of his last three starts. His recent form is pretty anomalous, though; per Statcast, he ranks in the bottom decile in expected ERA, expected batting average, fastball velocity, and pitching run value. While his high chase rate and low walk rate should be assets against the Dodgers, one of the most disciplined teams in the league, his ninth-percentile barrel rate could be a huge issue, since Los Angeles ranks fifth in that stat. Freeland has actually been better at Coors Field, but the Dodgers have by far the best road offense in baseball, so he should still be in for a challenge.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -2.5 Alternate Run Line (+106)
Given that Sasaki’s improved form since the All-Star break coincides with a technical tweak he made, his strong pitching should be pretty sustainable. Los Angeles has already gotten to Freeland twice this season and has scored at least seven runs in each of the first two games; it’s hard to see the Rockies tagging Sasaki for more than two or three runs.
Strong Lean: Andy Pages 1+ Extra Base Hits (+110)
In his last 12 games, Pages has slashed .326/.404/.565, recording at least one extra-base hit five times. While that’s a slightly lower frequency than the odds would imply, he has a .720 xSLG against lefty cutters, one of Freeland’s most frequent offerings against righties.
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