Baseball is a game of fine margins, and in series between playoff chasers, mere inches can ultimately be the difference between qualifying for the playoffs and watching October from home. For the Philadelphia Phillies, who currently hold onto the second NL Wild Card spot, and the Miami Marlins, four games behind the final place, series like this week’s are critical.
So far, the Marlins have failed the test, dropping each of the first two games of the series by narrow margins. Since the start of the series, Miami’s playoff chances have dropped from 8.4% to 6.0%, and Philadelphia’s have risen from 84.7% to 87.2%.
Tonight’s series finale is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. Sandy Alcantara will take the mound for the Marlins, and the Phillies will counter with Aaron Nola.
Let’s break down this must-win affair with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets
- Miami Marlins Moneyline (+115): Although Philadelphia won each of the first two games of the series, Alcantara at his best is a top five pitcher in baseball, and Nola is a clear weak link in the Phillies’ rotation. Philadelphia is 11-14 in his starts.
- Sandy Alcantara O18.5 Outs Recorded (+109): Alcantara has recorded at least 19 outs in 10 of his last 14 starts, combining durability with efficiency. Like in 2022, when he won the NL Cy Young Award, he leads all of baseball in innings pitched and batters faced.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies prediction, preview
It’s been quite the roller coaster over the past two-plus months for Miami, which went on a 26-8 run shortly before the All-Star break and a 12-game losing streak immediately thereafter. Overall, thanks to their nine straight losses right after the Midsummer Classic, the Marlins are just 12-18 to start the second half, and they’ve had just baseball’s 15th-best offense since the trade deadline, when they took a small step backward by dealing Liam Hicks. Miami is 6-7 since the trade deadline despite having the 10th-best pitching staff in baseball across that span, as though it traded one of its more productive relievers in Lake Bachar, its starters have pitched to just a 2.50 ERA in August, with Alcantara and Eury Pérez forming a devastating 1-2 punch. Alcantara was widely rumored to be available at the trade deadline, but the 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner now looks as if he’ll be the linchpin in future iterations of Marlins contenders, especially given how well he’s pitched as of late.
Philadelphia is in cruise control. The Phillies started off 9-19, fired Rob Thomson, and have played like a World Series contender behind Don Mattingly ever since. Despite a 3-10 stretch between the All-Star break and the end of July, Philadelphia has gone 12-5 so far this month to shore up its Wild Card positioning, and although it’s unlikely to catch the Chicago Cubs for the top Wild Card spot, it should feel confident that it can win a series against them. So far this month, the Phillies have had the fourth-best offense in the sport, as Bryce Harper leads all of baseball in walks, Kyle Schwarber paces the league in homers, and NL batting average leader Luis Arraez has been a solid acquisition. Additionally, their pitching top three of Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, and Zack Wheeler is arguably baseball’s best, with Sánchez likely to finish second in Cy Young Award voting for the second straight season. Philadelphia’s bullpen is a little less unstoppable (a 4.15 ERA in the second half of the season overall), but Jhoan Duran has been an extremely reliable closer.
Alcantara had a nightmarish May, pitching to a 7.39 ERA in that month, but besides that, he’s had an incredible season, registering a 2.45 mark since the start of June, leading all of baseball in innings pitched, and allowing a total of one earned run in his last four starts (27.0 innings). He’s completed the fifth inning in all but one of his starts and the sixth in all but four. Advanced numbers are kind to him, as he has a 68th-percentile expected ERA and a 97th-percentile pitching run value. Alcantara also ranks in the 82nd percentile in barrel rate and the 70th percentile in hard-hit rate, which should allow him to effectively muzzle Schwarber. Plus, the relatively boom-or-bust Phillies, who whiff and strike out at an above-average rate, should mitigate his only notable weaknesses, and given his solid control, they could find it harder than usual to get on base. I’d still expect Alcantara to be fairly effective, but his ERA has been more than a run higher on the road and Philadelphia’s OPS more than 100 points higher at home. The last time he pitched at this venue, he gave up four runs (two earned) in six innings as Miami won, 12-4.
Alcantara should have the clear edge in the starting pitching matchup over Nola, who’s pitched to a 5.33 ERA in his 25 starts and leads all of baseball in homers allowed. To be fair, Nola has been slightly better as of late, giving up only one earned run in two of his last four starts, but his ceiling is pretty low, as he’s given up at least one earned run in all but one of his starts and two or more in all but four. In fact, he ranks in just the first percentile in pitching run value and the 39th in expected ERA. His strengths are nearly the opposite of Alcantara’s; his above-median chase, whiff, and strikeout rates could be helpful against a Marlins team with a disciplined plate approach and solid contact skills. To be fair, Miami isn’t well-suited to take advantage of his weaknesses, as he gives up a lot of hard hits and the Marlins have a relatively soft-hitting lineup. I’d still expect them to be effective overall, though; Nola has registered an ERA north of 6 in his 12 home starts, and Miami’s offense has produced similarly whether at home or on the road. Nola hasn’t pitched at home against the Marlins since September 9, 2023, but in that game, he allowed four earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work.
Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies pick, best bet
Best Bet: Miami Marlins Moneyline (+115)
I don’t trust Miami’s bullpen, which has been quite bad as of late, but in games that Alcantara pitches, the Marlins will ask very little from their bullpen. There’s a reason Miami is 16-10 in Alcantara’s starts.
Strong Lean: Sandy Alcantara O18.5 Outs Recorded (+109)
Alcantara has pitched into the seventh inning in 13 of his 26 starts overall, but since the start of June, he’s recorded at least one out in the seventh inning in 10 of his 14 outings, including seven shutout innings against the Phillies at home on July 28.
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