No team has ever made the MLB playoffs with a sub-.500 record in a 162-game season, but if the season ended today, that’s exactly what would happen. The Texas Rangers are just 60-61 after losing two of the first three games of a series against the Los Angeles Angels, but they’d somehow be in position to claim the AL’s final Wild Card spot.
The Rangers will look to salvage a series split against the cellar-dwellers at 10:07 p.m. ET. Jacob deGrom will be the man tasked with achieving that, and Walbert Ureña will start for Los Angeles.
Let’s break down this divisional clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Best Bets
- Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (+137): Given that the Angels have won in seven of the 11 games that Ureña has started at home, he might be good enough to single-handedly carry on their franchise record of never experiencing a 100-loss season.
- Over 18.5 Strikeouts (+100): Both of these teams strike out a ton, ranking eighth and ninth in total strikeouts since the All-Star break, and both deGrom and Ureña have pretty good swing-and-miss stuff (especially deGrom, who has the highest career strikeout-to-walk ratio ever).
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels prediction, preview
Texas has hovered between three games over .500 and six games under .500 for the entire season, and its playoff chances have stayed in between 31.0% and 67.9%, per FanGraphs. In the wide-open AL West, all five teams have spent at least some time in the division lead, although the Angels and the Athletics have long since dropped out of contention. The Rangers just haven’t been very consistent since the All-Star break, going only 11-14 across that span. Their offense has been a slightly below-average unit, both for the season as a whole and the second half, with Corey Seager and Wyatt Langford both missing significant time due to injury. Additionally, Texas has had baseball’s fifth-worst pitching staff since the All-Star break, as deGrom is its only regular starter with even an average ERA+. Additionally, the Rangers just don’t have enough depth in the bullpen around closer Jacob Latz, who was an All-Star this season. Texas had a very quiet trade deadline, with former Los Angeles reliever Chase Silseth its only major acquisition, but it didn’t have all that great a bullpen in its 2023 World Series triumph, either.
For their part, the Angels are on the verge of making unwanted history. Los Angeles is the only franchise never to have lost 100 games in the season, and at 47-74, it’s currently on pace to finish 63-99 for the second time in three seasons. Given that they’ve gone just 9-15 since the All-Star break, the Angels are trending in the wrong direction. While Mike Trout has had a solid campaign, Los Angeles ranks 27th in OPS, including dead last since the Midsummer Classic, and in the medium term, its decision to deal Jo Adell at the trade deadline is probably a downgrade, even though Adell was experiencing a down season. The Angels have had a slightly better pitching staff, but they blew that up at the deadline, sending away ace José Soriano to the Toronto Blue Jays in addition to relievers Silseth, Kirby Yates, Brent Suter, and Ryan Zeferjahn. To be fair, their new-look bullpen actually has a respectable 4.14 ERA in August, but the moves they made were clearly geared towards future success rather than towards trying to avoid the 100-loss mark in 2026.
DeGrom was allegedly almost moved at the trade deadline, but he declined to waive his no-trade clause. The 38-year-old has finally started to show some signs of his age this season, but he’s still been the Rangers’ best pitcher, posting a respectable 3.87 ERA across 22 starts, including 15 starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed. His Statcast profile is still that of an ace; he has a 68th-percentile expected ERA and 85th-percentile pitching run value, and he ranks in the top sextile in fastball velocity, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate. All of those strengths should exacerbate Los Angeles’ weaknesses, as the Angels have an extremely aggressive plate approach, whiffing and striking out frequently. DeGrom has been susceptible to big flies, ranking in the eighth percentile and the sixth percentile in hard-hit rate, but Los Angeles ranks near the bottom of the league in both of those stats. To be fair, he also has a 26th-percentile barrel rate and the Angels find the barrel relatively frequently, but I’m still expecting a positive performance. DeGrom hasn’t been quite as sharp on the road, but Los Angeles’ OPS is nearly 100 points worse at home.
Ureña could easily out-duel the man 16 years his senior. The 22-year-old has been excellent, recording a 2.83 ERA in his 21 outings (19 starts), and although he’s coming off of a rough outing (2.1 innings, four earned runs), a 2.25 mark over a 16-start (88.0-inning) span is genuinely elite. Advanced numbers concur; Ureña has a 76th-percentile expected ERA and 84th-percentile pitching run value, and he has the best breaking stuff in the league. Additionally, he’s been tremendous at avoiding major damage, ranking in the 83rd percentile in hard-hit rate, the 88th percentile in barrel rate, and the 86th percentile in average exit velocity. That could be an asset against Texas, which has an above-average average exit velocity. The Rangers also aren’t particularly well-suited to take advantage of Ureña’s lone weakness (his 10th-percentile walk rate), since they earn free passes infrequently. He’s been even better at home, pitching to a 2.49 ERA, and Texas has been slightly worse on the road.
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Angels Moneyline (+137)
Betting on baseball’s worst team to win a game isn’t always the shrewdest of moves, but the Angels have picked up the win in seven of Ureña’s 11 starts at home and the Rangers the loss in six of deGrom’s 11 on the road.
Strong Lean: Over 18.5 Strikeouts (+100)
Even at his advanced age, deGrom is a strikeout machine, and so is Los Angeles. Since the All-Star break, the Angels rank eighth in total strikeouts and Texas ninth, with each getting fanned more than nine times per game on average across that span.
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