The Cubs (71-50) are a juggernaut, posting the fifth-best record in all of baseball. Chicago will attempt to bolster its standing in the National League with a victory this afternoon. That could prove difficult against the high-powered Nationals (59-63). Despite faltering under .500, Washington’s big bats can turn any game into a slugfest. Which side will come out on top this afternoon?
The Cubs are favorites (-146) over the Nationals, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Chicago and Washington on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Cubs vs. Nationals pick, best bet today
- Cubs -1.5 (+113): Cavalli is good enough to hold his own this afternoon, but this is a tough spot against PCA and company. On the other side, Gausman is an above-average arm that has suffered through bad luck in the first half. This Nationals lineup sans James Wood doesn’t pack the same punch. A comfortable Cubs win at plus money feels like a reasonable bet.
Cubs vs. Nationals prediction, preview
The headliner for the Cubs in this one will be Kevin Gausman. Making just his second start with Chicago, the veteran will go up against a formidable offense. Still, the right-hander impressed during his team debut last week (7.0 IP, 2 ER). Through 134.1 innings of work this season, spent primarily with Toronto, Gausman has delivered a 4.29 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 131 strikeouts (8.8 K/9). Those numbers, while unimpressive, don’t tell the whole story. Per Savant, the 35-year-old ranks within the top 65th percentile in chase rate (34.5%), whiff rate (27.0%) and walk rate (6.5%). Chicago’s elite defensive infield should make a positive impact as well.
Navigating this Nationals lineup won’t be easy; they lead all of baseball in runs (655), homers (176) and OPS (.769). The duo of James Wood (151 wRC+) and CJ Abrams (144 wRC+) has wreaked havoc against almost every National League pitching staff. The former leads the Senior Circuit with a .393 on-base percentage, while the latter paces all of baseball with 91 RBIs. With that being said, this offense is a bit top-heavy following the trade deadline. Luis Garcia Jr. (135 wRC+) and Curtis Mead (134 wRC+) were shipped off to Boston and New York, respectively. Keibert Ruiz is the other bat on the roster (min. 100 plate appearances) with a wRC+ above 100. To make matters worse, Wood (oblique) is currently on the injured list.
If there’s reason for optimism in DC today, its’ due to Cade Cavalli. On an otherwise dismal Washington pitching staff, the 27-year-old is emerging as the team’s clear-cut ace. Over 128.2 innings (25 starts), he’s posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.30 WHIP and 141 strikeouts (9.9 K/9). He’s tossed exactly six innings during his last six outings, allowing no more than three earned runs each time. Still, it’s worth noting that Cavalli has been worse at home (3.88 ERA) than on the road (3.23 ERA). In addition, the righty has a knack for giving up base hits (9.0 H/9).
While the Nats remain baseball’s best offense, the Cubbies aren’t too far behind. Their 5.24 runs per game are second-most in the majors. Where this offense is at its best is plate discipline. Chicago is averaging an MLB-best 4.29 walks per game this season. Pete Crow-Armstrong is the straw that stirs the drink in the Windy City. The elite two-way player leads the league with a 7.5 WAR. At the plate, he’s slashing .284/.384/.544 with 27 homers and 30 stolen bases. As a unit, the Cubs have posted the fifth-best OPS on the road against right-handed pitching (.748).
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 (+113)
There’s every reason to believe Gausman will put up better numbers going forward in Chicago. Today’s game presents a challenge, but Wood’s absence makes Washington’s lineup far less formidable. On the other side, the Cubs have shown a knack for working the count and putting up runs on the road. Cavalli is good, but this is a difficult spot for any young hurler.
More MLB Content & Betting Picks
- MLB Best Bets Today: Top NRFI props for Thursday 8/13/26
- MLB Best Bets: Top home run props for Thursday 8/13/26
Tail all of today’s MLB action in the DKN Betting Group here.
