Last season, the Seattle Mariners came within eight outs of advancing to their first World Series in franchise history, giving up a seventh-inning home run to the Toronto Blue Jays’ George Springer in Game 7 of the ALCS. They entered the 2026 season as one of the favorites, but they never heated up and now are three times as likely to miss the playoffs as to make it.
At 1:35 p.m. ET, the Mariners will hope to avoid a sweep at the hands of the New York Yankees, a team that they could conceivably have to face in the playoffs if they make it that far.
Logan Gilbert will take the mound for Seattle, and New York will start Max Fried.
Let’s break down this battle of 2025 playoff teams with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees Best Bets
- U7.5 Runs (-107): 7.5 runs is a low total, but given how good Fried and the Yankees’ bullpen are and how out-of-form the Mariners’ offense is, it’s hard to see Seattle doing much of anything. Four of the Mariners’ last five games and three of New York’s last five have gone under this total.
- George Lombard Jr. 1+ Hits (-136): Seven games is a small sample size, but Lombard has gotten at least one hit in six of them, and across all levels this season, he’s had at least one in 59 of his 85 games. Lombard has a .314 xBA so far, and Gilbert ranks in just the 57th percentile in that stat.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees prediction, preview
In a normal season, the Mariners wouldn’t be sniffing the playoff picture, but the AL West has been historically bad this season, with all five teams sporting negative run differentials, so at nine games below .500, Seattle is somehow just 5.5 games behind the division lead. Offensively, the Mariners have been a disaster this season, ranking second-to-last in OPS (perhaps ironically, only ahead of the Blue Jays), and they’ve been only scantly better in their 8-16 run since the All-Star break. Cal Raleigh has had arguably the most notable fall-off of any MVP finalist ever, as he’s posted negative WAR despite his elite defense, and free agency signing Brendan Donovan has played just 31 games because of injury. Seattle has still enjoyed both an above-average rotation and bullpen, but its pitching collapse since the Midsummer Classic (28th in ERA) and its offensive stagnation explain its poor record. The Mariners also did little at the trade deadline, dealing away struggling starter Luis Castillo and acquiring Seranthony Domínguez. Their remaining quartet of starting pitchers is still plenty talented, but their offense (starting with Raleigh) will really need to start picking it up.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have been good, but just not quite good enough. Despite a rough stretch in late June, New York is a solid 68-52, which would easily lead either the AL West or Central. Although the Yankees have struggled somewhat offensively since the All-Star break, ranking sixth-to-last in OPS over that span, they made a few moves to alleviate that weakness, bringing in Luis García Jr. and elevating top prospect George Lombard Jr. In addition, Cody Bellinger (hamstring) and Aaron Judge (rib) could conceivably return at some point before the end of the season. New York has gone a solid 14-10 despite its lackluster offense because of its elite pitching staff; the Yankees have been baseball’s best defensive team since the Midsummer Classic, and the trio of Cy Young Award candidate Cam Schlittler, Fried, and Gerrit Cole is one of the league’s best. New York’s bullpen has also posted a sub-3 ERA since the All-Star break, as all four of its relievers with at least 50 innings pitched have a sub-3 mark.
Gilbert has been Seattle’s most reliable starter this season, making 23 starts and pitching to a 3.42 ERA. He’s been a little bit cold in his last five starts, giving up three or more earned runs four times and pitching to a 4.22 mark over that span, but he’s capable of some truly brilliant outings, including a 7.1-inning, one-hit showing against Toronto on July 4. All in all, he sports a 63rd-percentile expected ERA and produced 94th-percentile pitching run value. Plus, his elite chase and whiff rates should make him a good matchup against a Yankees team that doesn’t swing much but misses often when it does, and his top-decile walk rate will take away one of New York’s biggest strengths. He’s still prone to some major mistakes, and the Yankees are primed to take advantage of his 13th-percentile barrel rate and 17th-percentile average exit velocity, but he’s been quite a bit better on the road, putting up a 2.50 ERA in unfriendly environments. New York has been better at home and tagged him for five runs (four earned) in 5.1 innings in his last start at this venue, but that team also had a healthy Judge, Bellinger, and Giancarlo Stanton. I expect a solid outing from Gilbert.
Fried should certainly play his role in the pitcher’s duel. He’s arguably baseball’s best pitcher never to have won a Cy Young Award, and although injuries have limited him to just 14 starts so far this season, he’s been quite good in the starts he has made, sporting a 2.88 ERA in 14 appearances. In fact, he ranks in the 98th percentile in expected ERA and the 97th in pitching run value. Plus, the Mariners aren’t well-suited to take advantage of his main weaknesses; although he ranks in just the 31st percentile in chase rate, Seattle has chased at the fifth-highest, and while he doesn’t force many whiffs, the Mariners frequently find air. Fried has a top-decile hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity, and Seattle hasn’t hit the ball very hard as is. To be fair, Fried has been somewhat worse at home and the Mariners slightly less atrocious on the road, but a 3.45 home ERA is still plenty respectable.
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 7.5 Runs (-107)
The Yankees’ bats have been cold for the last few weeks…and Seattle’s bats have been cold for the entire season. This is shaping up to be a classic pitcher’s duel, even though Gilbert can be a little bit more inconsistent than Fried.
Strong Lean: George Lombard Jr. 1+ Hits (-136)
Seven games is a microscopic sample size, but why not roll with a kid who’s clearly seeing the ball well? He’s had a hit in six of his first seven MLB games and was hitting a solid .284 across three MiLB levels before his elevation.
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