It’s only August, but goodness did the Guardians need a win last night.
The team had come into the day losers of six of its last seven games, and as such, had already been leapfrogged in the standings by the Tigers. Now, after a 6-4 victory, Cleveland has an opportunity to get revenge, and leap right back over Detroit. It also has an opportunity to simply win a series.
Let’s preview this crucial divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Tigers prediction, preview
You have to respect how quickly Parker Messick has seemingly mastered the MLB level. A second-round pick out of Florida State in 2022, Messick started his 30th career game last Friday. Across 176.1 innings with the Guardians, the 25-year-old owns a 2.60 ERA and a 3.07 xERA. Messick is so good that winning the American League Rookie of the Year Award is secondary in his pursuit to simply winning the American League Cy Young. Now, he’s unlikely to catch Cam Schlittler or Dylan Cease in that particular pursuit, but in 2026, Messick ranks sixth among all qualified pitchers in both ERA (2.57) and xERA (3.07). He doesn’t strikeout the world, yet he limits hard contact to the tune of an 85th percentile opponent hard hit rate (33.0%) and a 72nd percentile opponent expected batting average (.223). That’s all to say, don’t worry about his .257 BABIP. That’s a feature, not a flaw.
On Thursday afternoon, Messick will be looking to slow down a Tigers lineup that has been red-hot over the past two weeks. In fact, thanks primarily to MVP candidates Dillon Dingler and Kevin McGonigle swinging it well in that span, Detroit sports the league’s best marks in batting average (.282), wOBA (.358) and wRC+ (131). However, it is worth noting that the Tigers had to place Riley Greene (hamstring) on the IL yesterday. Greene is third on the team in home runs (16) and second to only the aforementioned Dingler in expected wOBA (.363). His presence will be sorely missed in the club’s day-to-day.
Toeing the rubber in this matinee rubber match for Detroit will be Keider Montero, who appears to have finally figured it out in the big leagues in 2026, after riding the elevator between Triple-A and the majors pretty consistently in 2024 and 2025. Over 122.1 innings of work, Montero possesses a 3.38 ERA and a 3.52 xERA. Yes, a .231 opponent BABIP is a red flag, as is a ninth percentile whiff rate (19.2%), but Montero’s had some really great performances since re-joining the Tigers’ rotation in late July. That said, the right-hander was roughed up in his last outing by a very underwhelming Giants team. Montero surrendered a pair of home runs and five earned runs at Oracle Park. Not ideal.
Guardians vs. Tigers pick, best bet
Best Bet: Guardians ML (-120)
Montero has a 4.13 FIP as a starter this season, compared to a 1.89 FIP as a reliever. The Tigers needing to rely on the swing man in their rotation is a reflection of how much they’ll miss Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize down the stretch of this AL Wild Card race. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 13-10 in Messick’s starts in 2026, and their offense has been quite good in it’s own right over the past 14 days, sitting fourth in expected wOBA (.338).
