A new week arrives with baseball turning from July toward August—and the home runs are overdue. Saturday’s 15-game slate produced only 14 homers, extending a meaningful league-wide power decline since the All-Star break. The contact has stayed loud, yet too many barrels have become doubles, sharp liners, and warning-track outs. Even excellent home-run spots have required more faith than the underlying swings should demand.
Monday’s board accepts that strange offensive shape while leaving room for the power to return. Each selection owns recent barrel production, strong exit velocity, favorable pitch shapes, and a prominent lineup assignment. One clean swing can finish every bet, whether the ball reaches the seats or splits an outfield gap. Two-hit paths remain available through contact skill, lineup volume, and starters allowing too much traffic. After Saturday’s homer drought, a new week and a new month approaching offer hope for a needed power correction. Until that arrives, two total bases remain the sharper way to trust the league’s loudest bats.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out props and predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Best MLB player prop bets today
| Player prop pick | Odds | Why I like it |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Garcia Jr. 2+ total bases | -105 | García’s .308/.357/.721 last-30 surge, 12 homers, 25 RBI, 91.6 mph EV, and 70% recent hard-hit rate meet Scherzer’s 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, six homers allowed to lefties, and García’s 6-for-11 history with two homers. |
| Bryce Harper 2+ total bases | +120 | Phillips’ 6.10 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 35 hits allowed across 31 recent innings, and eight-run collapse against Philadelphia offer Harper’s .977 OPS versus righties, .380 xwOBA, 80% recent hard-hit rate, and 40% blast rate an ideal correction spot. |
| Joc Pederson 2+ total bases | +150 | Eleven hits across seven games, nine homers over 30, a .832 OPS, 92 mph EV, 49% hard hits, and 30% barrels across his last 10 batted balls position Pederson to attack Kirby’s 51 hits allowed over 42 recent innings. |
| Chase DeLauter 2+ total bases | +135 | DeLauter’s .328/.385/.504 last-30 line, 14% strikeout rate, 91.1 mph EV, 90% hard-hit rate across his last 10 batted balls, and .560 slugging percentage against four-seamers create a credible counterpunch to Burns’ 2.42 ERA and 57.1% fastball usage. |
| Dominic Canzone 2+ total bases | +135 | Fresh from a homer, double, and four-RBI afternoon, Canzone carries 16 homers, an .844 OPS, 13.8% barrels, and a staggering 60% blast rate across his last 10 batted balls into Rocker’s 5.14 recent ERA and 1.31 WHIP. |
In-depth analysis below.
Prop bet analysis
Luis Garcia Jr. 2 + total bases (-105)
Luis García Jr. has turned the last month into the best power stretch of his career. He is batting .308/.357/.721 across 30 games, with 12 homers, 25 RBI, and 17 runs. That production has pushed his season line to .278/.310/.544 with 21 homers, 70 RBI, and 180 total bases. His season-long contact supports the surge: 91.6 mph average exit velocity, 45.6% hard hits, and 11.2% barrels.
The shorter contact window is louder. García’s last 10 batted-ball events include 70% hard hits, 40% blasts, 20% barrels, and 20% pulled barrels. He homered twice during that sample, while maintaining a 30% fly-ball rate. Those shapes give him legitimate home-run, double, and multi-hit routes.
García has also punished right-handed pitching all season. He owns a .287 average and .578 slugging percentage in that split, with 17 doubles, four triples, and 19 homers. Max Scherzer returns with a 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and only 14 strikeouts across 22 innings. Left-handed hitters have already taken him deep six times.
The direct history closes the argument. García is 6-for-11 against Scherzer with one double, two homers, and 13 total bases. Scherzer’s rehab finish was encouraging, although Monday marks his first major-league appearance since June 10. García’s form, platoon dominance, and established success against Scherzer make him the strongest anchor.
Bryce Harper 2+ total bases (+120)
Bryce Harper carries the weakest recent box-score form among the five selections. He is batting .120/.207/.320 across seven games, with three hits and 12 strikeouts in 25 at-bats. His 30-game window looks steadier, producing five homers, 18 RBI, 12 runs, and a .432 slugging percentage.
The contact underneath those results remains encouraging. Harper’s last 10 batted-ball events include 80% hard hits, 40% blasts, 20% barrels, and a 40% fly-ball rate. He homered twice during that sample. His recent swing is still producing the exit velocity and elevation required for extra bases.
Harper owns a .251/.357/.484 season line with 21 homers, 61 RBI, 62 runs, and an .841 OPS. His .380 expected wOBA comfortably exceeds his .361 actual mark, pointing toward better results ahead. He has averaged 90.1 mph off the bat with 44.9% hard hits and 11% barrels.
Right-handed pitching has unlocked Harper’s best production. He is batting .279/.384/.593 against righties, with 15 doubles, one triple, 18 homers, and a .977 OPS. Tyler Phillips enters with a 6.10 ERA and 1.52 WHIP across his last seven outings. He allowed 35 hits and 12 walks over 31 innings while recording only 17 strikeouts.
Philadelphia also scored eight runs against Phillips across four innings June 16. Harper’s recent strikeout volume creates volatility, but this pitching matchup offers a clear correction spot. His projected third-place assignment supplies enough volume for either one barrel or two hits.
Joc Pederson 2+ total bases (+150)
Joc Pederson owns the hottest conventional batting form among these five selections. He is 11-for-27 over seven games, producing a .407/.407/.778 line with two homers. Pederson is also 5-for-13 during this Seattle series and collected three hits Saturday. Across 30 games, he has nine homers, 13 RBI, 16 runs, and a .569 slugging percentage.
The season-long profile carries similar authority. Pederson is batting .251/.341/.491 with 17 homers, 42 runs, and an .832 OPS. His average exit velocity stands at 92 mph, supported by 49% hard hits and 11.3% barrels. Against right-handers, he owns a .260/.349/.492 line, .232 isolated power, and 135 wRC+.
Pederson’s last 10 batted-ball events sharpen the case considerably. He has generated 80% hard hits, 30% blasts, 30% barrels, and 20% pulled barrels. That window also includes a 40% fly-ball rate and two homers. Few hitters on Monday’s board combine current contact frequency with that much airborne damage.
George Kirby carries a respectable 3.57 ERA, but opposing hitters have found plenty of traffic recently. Kirby has allowed 51 hits across 42 innings over seven starts, producing a 1.40 WHIP. Left-handed hitters are batting .261 against him. His sweeper and four-seamer account for nearly 60% of his pitches, directly matching Pederson’s strongest current contact shapes. A projected leadoff assignment should provide five plate appearances.
Chase DeLauter 2+ total bases (+135)
Chase DeLauter receives the toughest opposing starter, yet his sustained form keeps him on the card. He is batting .346/.452/.500 over seven games and .333/.424/.579 across 15. His 30-game line stands at .328/.385/.504 with four homers, 18 RBI, 13 runs, and three steals.
DeLauter’s rookie production already looks remarkably complete. He owns a .282/.352/.447 line with 20 doubles, 11 homers, 50 RBI, and 94 hits. His 14% strikeout rate sits far below the 22.2% major-league average. He has paired that contact skill with a 9.9% walk rate and .350 wOBA.
The immediate contact is even more convincing. DeLauter has hard-hit nine of his last 10 batted-ball events. That sample includes 20% blasts, 20% barrels, 40% fly balls, and one homer. His 91.1 mph season exit velocity and 45.4% hard-hit rate reinforce those recent results.
Chase Burns owns a dominant 12-1 record, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 124 strikeouts across 107⅔ innings. His command has become less precise lately, however. Burns has walked 18 batters over seven starts, raising his WHIP to 1.39 during that span.
The four-seamer provides DeLauter’s opening. Burns throws it 57.1% of the time, while DeLauter owns a .312 average and .560 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Warm Cincinnati conditions and a projected third-place lineup spot strengthen a difficult, statistically defensible fifth selection.
Dominic Canzone 2+ total bases (-135)
Dominic Canzone enters Monday fresh from a 3-for-5 performance featuring a three-run homer, RBI double, and four RBI. He is 4-for-13 during this Texas series with six RBI and seven total bases. His last 30 games have produced seven homers, 20 RBI, 12 runs, and a .481 slugging percentage.
Canzone’s season has developed into a legitimate middle-order breakout. He owns a .260/.332/.512 line with 16 homers, 46 RBI, and an .844 OPS. His contact profile includes a 92 mph average exit velocity, 46.7% hard-hit rate, and 13.8% barrel rate. Fourteen of his homers have come against right-handed pitching.
His last 10 batted-ball events contain the loudest damage indicators on this card. Canzone has produced 70% hard hits, 60% blasts, 40% barrels, and 30% pulled barrels. He homered three times while lifting 40% of those balls into the air. That combination creates immediate two-base upside whenever Rocker enters the strike zone.
Kumar Rocker rebounded with six scoreless, one-hit innings during his latest appearance. His previous six appearances produced enough damage to leave him with a 5.14 ERA across his last seven. Rocker surrendered 35 hits and 20 earned runs over those 35 innings. His season WHIP sits at 1.31.
Rocker relies heavily upon sliders, cutters, and four-seamers—the three pitches Canzone has recently driven. A projected third-place lineup assignment adds plate appearances and protection. Canzone’s current swing makes him the card’s most explosive extra-base candidate.
