In the famous words of Krusty the Clown, “if this is anyone but Steve Allen, you’re stealing my bit!”
The Red Sox got off to a horrible start to the 2026 season, yet after a 15-game winning streak, the club is suddenly back above the .500 mark and currently in the final Wild Card slot in the American League. Starting slow in the AL East only to get red-hot and become a team of destiny? Where have I seen this script before…?
The Blue Jays are now long removed from that narrative of 2025, and with five losses in seven contests to start the second-half, it appears that the team will be selling at this year’s deadline.
Can Toronto make one final postseason push this weekend in Fenway? Let’s preview this divisional clash and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Boston’s lengthy winning streak came to an end on Wednesday evening, as the Red Sox dropped the second leg of a doubleheader against the Orioles. They’ll try and start a new streak on Friday, with Patrick Sandoval taking the mound versus the Jays. It’ll only be Sandoval’s third start of the season, as the left-hander continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. The first two outings have been a bit of a mixed bag. Sandoval allowed a single earned run over 4.1 innings in his Red Sox debut in Chicago, yet he followed that up by allowing five runs (four earned) last Saturday against the Rays. Still, in terms of generally positive signs, the southpaw’s velocity has looked normal and he’s managed a 5.00 K/BB ratio. If I’m Boston brass, I’m pleased with the early results.
Sandoval should have the advantage in this matchup, too. The main reason for Toronto’s regression in 2026? The club simply can not hit. Even after a win on Thursday to salvage their series with Tampa Bay, the Jays have scored a grand total of eight runs in their past six contests. It all lines up with trends from the season as a whole, as Toronto comes into Fenway ranking dead-last in runs (405), dead-last in ISO (.137), dead-last in OBP (.303) and dead-last in wRC+ (90). Here’s breaking news: You’re not going to emerge victorious in a lot of games with that formula. Long-term injuries to Addison Barger (elbow) and Anthony Santander (shoulder) haven’t helped matters, but a lot of these struggles fall squarely on the shoulders of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer, as neither man has a wRC+ above 100 as we near the end of July. Woof.
Taking the mound for Toronto will be Trey Yesavage. It’s been a bit of an up and down official rookie season for the star of last year’s playoffs, but at the end of the day, Yesavage owns a 3.78 ERA and a 3.35 xERA over 81.0 innings. The right-hander isn’t striking out opponents at the same clip as he was in 2025, yet Yesavage still owns an elite 13.4% swinging strike rate. He’s also been quite good at limiting quality opponent contact, as evidenced by a 92nd percentile opponent expected batting average (.197) and an 82nd percentile opponent barrel rate (5.6%). On the long list of problems that the 2026 Blue Jays possess, Yesavage isn’t one of them.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Best Bet: Under 9 (-119)
The Jays have eight total runs in their past six games. They rank dead-last for the season in runs (405), ISO (.137), OBP (.303) and wRC+ (90). Unless the Red Sox truly pummel Trey Yesavage, we aren’t even sniffing this total.
Strong Lean: Trey Yesavage Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-118)
Boston is just a good matchup for Yesavage. Basically, the RHP’s biggest flaw is his 12.2% walk rate, but in 12.2 innings against the Red Sox this season, Yesavage has allowed three earned runs and zero free passes. That’s because Boston ranks 28th in walk rate (7.9%) and fifth in chase rate (34.9%).
