Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top three home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for this TGIF slate: Corbin Carroll, Rafael Devers and Jordan Walker.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Carroll | +345 | Carson Palmquist will technically open for the Nationals in tonight’s contest against the Diamondbacks, but we all know what follows. They can only hide Zack Littell for so long. Over 96.0 innings in 2026, Littell has surrendered 25 home runs — the most of any National League pitcher. LHBs are also averaging a robust 3.02 long balls per nine off Littell. Carroll, who has four extra-base hits in his last four games, is in a great spot. |
| Rafael Devers | +354 | LHBs have been Grayson Rodriguez’s biggest demon in 2026, as the 26-year-old has surrendered an eye-popping .366/.433/.610 slash line within the split. Overall, Rodriguez also owns a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (55.0%). Meanwhile, Devers sports a .284 ISO and a 140 wRC+ when facing righties this season. |
| Jordan Walker | +411 | Since June 19, Rhett Lowder has started four games. In those four contests, he’s pitched to a 10.50 ERA. He’s also allowed opposing hitters to slash .404/.442/.652 with a .469 wOBA. As for Walker? What’s left to say about the reigning Home Run Derby champion? Thanks primarily to 100th percentile bat speed (79.2), Walker’s already set a new career-high with 22 long balls in 2026. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Corbin Carroll 1+ Home Run (+345)
Carson Palmquist will technically open for the Nationals in tonight’s contest against the Diamondbacks, but we all know what follows. They can only hide Zack Littell for so long. Over 96.0 innings in 2026, Littell has surrendered 25 home runs — the most of any National League pitcher. Need a larger sample? Well, going back to the beginning of 2025, no MLB pitcher has given up more home runs than Littell’s 61. It’s a bit of an issue for the veteran. Specific to this year, LHBs are averaging a robust 3.02 long balls per nine off Littell, along with a .580 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. The switch-hitting Ketel Marte (+304) is a strong option in this market if he plays, but Carroll works just as well. In the former Rookie of the Year’s past four games, Carroll has four extra-base hits, including his 15th home run of the season on Wednesday.
Rafael Devers 1+ Home Run (+354)
I don’t normally go out of my way to back players taking the field at Oracle Park, but that illustrates how poorly Grayson Rodriguez has pitched in an Angels’ uniform. The oft-injured former top prospect was traded to Los Angeles this past offseason, and ailments have limited the RHP to eight starts and 35.0 innings in 2026. However, Rodriguez has still had time to allow 32 earned runs. LHBs have been his biggest demon, as the 26-year-old has surrendered an eye-popping .366/.433/.610 slash line within the split. Overall, Rodriguez owns a first percentile opponent hard hit rate (55.0%). Things have not gone well. Devers sports a .284 ISO and a 140 wRC+ when facing righties this season. He’s also hit half of his 20 long balls in San Francisco. It’s not like it’s impossible.
Jordan Walker 1+ Home Run (+411)
Since June 19, Rhett Lowder has started four games. In those four contests, he’s pitched to a 10.50 ERA. He’s also allowed opposing hitters to slash .404/.442/.652 with a .469 wOBA. Needless to say, I do not trust Rhett Lowder to deliver a strong pitching performance on Friday. As for Walker? What’s left to say about the reigning Home Run Derby champion? Thanks primarily to 100th percentile bat speed (79.2), Walker’s already set a new career-high with 22 long balls in 2026. On top of that, he’s managed 98th percentile average exit velocity (93.9) and a 92nd percentile expected slugging rate (.506). He’s legit, and he should easily take advantage of this juicy matchup.
