The Los Angeles Dodgers were thrown into the fire immediately after the All-Star break, playing back-to-back-to-back road series on the East Coast against big-market teams. The back-to-back World Series champions have thrived so far, taking two of three against the New York Yankees and two of three against the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ll end their road trip with a three-game series against the New York Mets this weekend.
That series will begin tonight with a 7:10 p.m. ET matchup at Citi Field. Roki Sasaki will take the mound for Los Angeles, and Sean Manaea will start for New York.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets Best Bets
- Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+119): On average, the Dodgers have won their games by 1.52 runs, and the Mets have lost theirs by 0.62. Los Angeles might have a smaller pitching advantage than usual tonight, but Sasaki at his best is more than capable of shutting this New York lineup down.
- Over 2.5 Home Runs (-120): Both of these teams have pretty powerful lineups, with each ranking in the top eight in barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity. Citi Field isn’t always the most homer-friendly park, but conditions in Queens are warm and clear.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets prediction, preview
The Dodgers, who have an 11-game lead in the NL West, are in cruise control, and little matters until the postseason. Despite getting swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks right before the All-Star break, Los Angeles has a 99.8% chance to win the division, a 25.6% chance to win the World Series, and it’s projected to finish with 100 wins. Despite effectively wasting $60 million on the struggling Kyle Tucker and losing Will Smith to a neck injury, the Dodgers have had baseball’s best offense, and Dalton Rushing has emerged as a star in his own right to complement the Max Muncy-Freddie Freeman-Andy Pages-Shohei Ohtani All-Star quartet. They’ve also had the second-best rotation, as Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Justin Wrobleski, and Ohtani (before being temporarily shut down due to knee soreness) have been a pretty un-hittable top three. Los Angeles’ bullpen (seventh-best) is still a relative weakness, but Edwin Díaz will be back eventually to complement its top five relievers, all of whom have a sub-3 ERA. At the trade deadline, the Dodgers will likely seek bullpen reinforcements or a back-end starter to buffer against Díaz, Blake Snell, or Tyler Glasnow not returning, but they could do nothing and cruise to a third straight title.
Meanwhile, Mets fans probably thought it couldn’t have gotten much more disastrous than the end of the 2025 campaign, when they went 38-55 after June 12 to miss the playoffs on a tiebreaker, but the 2026 season has been just that. New York lost 12 games in a row early in the season, had another stretch of 12 losses in 14 games, fired Carlos Mendoza, and have had less than a 10% chance to make the playoffs for more than a month. Despite a talented roster that features NL OBP leader Juan Soto and a promising rookie center fielder in A.J. Ewing, the Mets have had baseball’s third-worst offense. Their pitching hasn’t been much better either; they’ve had the eighth-worst rotation in baseball, as offseason signing Freddy Peralta has been extremely disappointing and Clay Holmes’ untimely leg fracture robbed them of their best pitcher. At least New York has had an above-average bullpen, thanks to veterans Luke Weaver, Brooks Raley, and Huascar Brazobán, but it’s possible that all three will be gone after the trade deadline.
Thankfully for the Mets, Los Angeles will be starting its most inconsistent pitcher tonight. At his best, Sasaki is brilliant, such as the seven innings of two-hit, shutout ball he pitched against the Los Angeles Angels on June 5, but those moments have been few and far between. Advanced numbers don’t paint such a positive picture of him; he ranks in just the 32nd percentile in expected ERA, and he ranks below the league median in both strikeout and walk rate, though New York hasn’t been particularly good at either. On the bright side, Sasaki has been good at generating chases and whiffs, which could be helpful against a team with relatively solid contact skills. The issue is that, when damage has come, it’s come in bunches: the 24-year-old ranks in the fifth percentile in barrel rate, the 11th in hard-hit percentage, and the 17th in average exit velocity, and for all of their weaknesses, the Mets still rank in the top eight in each of those categories. Additionally, the splits are against Sasaki, as his ERA is nearly a full run worse on the road this season and New York has been slightly less horrific at home.
Manaea began the season in the Mets’ bullpen, but he was elevated to the rotation in mid-June, pitching to a 4.42 ERA in seven starts. Though he hasn’t been great in any of them, at least he’s been consistent from start-to-start, giving up no fewer than two earned runs and no more than four in any. His Statcast profile concurs with his steady-but-unspectacular production, as he ranks in the 40th percentile in expected ERA and in the middle third in eight of the 12 categories. While his 35th-percentile hard-hit rate could be a problem against one of baseball’s most powerful lineups, at least he’s done a good job incentivizing chases, which could help him limit the ultra-disciplined Dodgers’ hitters. New York’s fielders, who have been among the league’s worst this season, could be pivotal, since he has a low whiff rate and Los Angeles has some of the best bat-to-ball skills. The issue is that Manaea has been worse at home and the Dodgers have had by far the league’s best road offense, so I’m not expecting him to shut anyone down tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets pick, best bet
Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+119)
I don’t always trust Sasaki, but even if the starting pitching matchup is relatively even, there’s such a massive gulf between these offenses. When these teams faced off in April, Los Angeles won two of the three games by multiple runs.
Strong Lean: Over 2.5 Home Runs (-120)
Both of these teams have pretty powerful lineups, as they rank sixth and 14th in homers, respectively, and Sasaki has allowed the ninth-most homers in the NL.
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