If anyone other than the Dodgers can win the National League, it’s the Brewers (64-38). With the second-best record in baseball, Milwaukee is positioning itself for a deep postseason run. The same can’t be said for the Rockies (41-63), one of the league’s worst squads. With that being said, Colorado has looked far more respectable compared to last season’s cellar dwellers. Can the visitors pull off a major upset on Friday afternoon?
The Brewers are favorites (-259) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Colorado and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies vs. Brewers pick, best bet today
- Brewers -1.5 (-115): Sugano relies on inducing weak contact, which doesn’t bode well against a terrific bat to ball Brewers lineup. On the other side, Drohan rarely gives up home runs, especially at home. Expect a comfortable win for Milwaukee on Friday afternoon.
Rockies vs. Brewers prediction, preview
In an otherwise miserable Rockies rotation, Tomoyuki Sugano has been a somewhat stabilizing force. Through 90.2 innings of work (17 starts), he’s notched a 4.76 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 51 strikeouts (5.1 K/9). At first glace, those numbers aren’t very impressive. However, Sugano has been a better pitcher on the road (4.15 ERA) than at hitter-friendly Coors Field (5.32 ERA). With that being said, the right-hander has abysmal advanced metrics. He ranks within the bottom second percentile in xERA (7.00), xBA (.311), whiff rate (17.4%), strikeout rate (13.4%) and barrel rate (13.7%).
A pitcher that struggles to generate strikeouts and gives up contact? On paper, this is a dream matchup for the Brewers. Their offense is fifth in runs scored (514) despite slugging a league-worst 94 home runs. Surprisingly, Sugano has given up 13 earned runs over his previous two road starts. Milwaukee’s lineup is an assembly line, cranking out base hits with relative ease. Seven different players on the active roster with 100+ plate appearances are hitting .250 or better. In addition, the team is averaging 5.09 runs per game at home, fourth-most in the majors.
Taking the mound for the Brew Crew will be Shane Drohan. The rookie has impressed during his brief time in the big leagues, slotting in nicely for this Milwaukee rotation. Over 76.0 innings of work (ten starts), he’s put up a 3.20 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 76 strikeouts (9.0 K/9). His performance is backed up with stellar peripherals; Drohan sits within the 70th percentile in xERA (3.31), chase rate (34.5%) and walk rate (6.6%). The southpaw has surrendered three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight outings.
This Colorado lineup is the inverse of its pitching staff, performing much better when playing at home. With that being said, this group is certainly capable of putting up runs. They’re averaging a respectable 4.47 runs per game on the road. Still, this doesn’t look like a great matchup on paper for the visitors. The Rockies are putting up a .706 OPS against left-handed pitching, only good enough for 15th in baseball. Even more concerning, Drohan excels at limiting home runs (0.7 HR/9). Big bats such as Hunter Goodman (31 HR), Mickey Moniak (16 HR) and TJ Rumfield (13 HR) could struggle this afternoon.
Best Bet: Brewers -1.5 (-115)
Ultimately, this is a matchup between one of the National League’s best squads and one of its worst. The Rockies will have their hands full against an underrated arm such as Drohan. To make matters worse for Colorado, Sugano’s contact-heavy approach could backfire against a Milwaukee lineup that consistently racks up hits. It’s difficult to envision the Brewers not pulling away on Friday afternoon.
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