In baseball, there are very rarely one-off games, as the schedule is built around blocks of three- and four-game series. However, thanks to inclement weather on June 25, the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals will face off tonight for one game at Busch Stadium in a matchup that could prove key to both teams’ playoff hopes.
Right now, the Diamondbacks hold a 0.5-game lead over the Cardinals for the final NL Wild Card spot. In a way, then, this game is a callback to the Wild Card Game, which existed between 2012 and 2019 as a play-in game to the main MLB Playoffs tournament.
First pitch is scheduled for 5:15 p.m. ET. Arizona will start Brandon Pfaadt, and St. Louis will turn to Michael McGreevy.
Let’s break down this clash with some odds and lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals Best Bets
- Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+101): It’s a small sample size, but the Diamondbacks have looked like the better team since the All-Star break, going 4-2 while the Cardinals have gone 2-4. At plus-odds, it’s worth going with the team that just won the series between these teams last week.
- Under 7.5 (-112): Busch Stadium is one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly venues, and six of St. Louis’ last eight home games stayed under this total.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals prediction, preview
The Diamondbacks, who stunningly won the pennant in 2023 as a Wild Card, started off 31-24, and on May 27, they had a 54.0% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. After that, they hit a rough patch, losing 23 of their next 37 games, and after a recent resurgence (which included a 3-2 series win against the Cardinals), they’re back up to a one-third chance of ultimately qualifying. Unlike in previous seasons, Arizona has won without the benefit of a top-five offense, as it ranks just 23rd in OPS this season, with Ketel Marte and Geraldo Perdomo not producing up to their typical standards and even Corbin Carroll not doing quite enough to salvage it. That’s because, unlike in previous seasons, the Diamondbacks have had decent pitching, as they rank a respectable 15th in ERA after finishing 23rd in that stat last season. Eduardo Rodríguez has produced the finest season of his career at the age of 33, and of their six relievers with at least 40 appearances, four have a sub-3 ERA. Arizona could still use another starting pitcher at the trade deadline, especially after losing Ryne Nelson to a long-term injury, but its prospects of bouncing back are making the playoffs are good if its offense can creep towards league-average.
St. Louis has had the more consistent season. The Cardinals have not dropped below .500 all season, and while they’ve rarely been favored to ultimately make the playoffs, they’ve rarely had lower than a 20% chance, either. Like the Diamondbacks, St. Louis has remained in contention despite ranking just 25th in OPS, as Jordan Walker’s star turn and JJ Wetherholt’s tremendous rookie season haven’t been quite enough to overcome disappointing offensive campaigns by shortstop Masyn Winn and outfielders Nathan Church and Victor Scott II. The Cardinals have made up for it by having the 10th-best rotation in baseball, with McGreevy and Kyle Leahy especially stepping up. Additionally, their bullpen has been respectable but not great, with all six of their relievers with at least 40 appearances posting an ERA between 3.10 and 4.70.
Pfaadt has been in and out of the Diamondbacks’ rotation this season. He started the season in the rotation but struggled, recording a 5.94 ERA across three starts, and after a similarly unsuccessful stint as a long reliever and a tuneup stint in the minors, he’s started four straight games and pitched well, recording a 2.14 ERA. Advanced numbers suggest Pfaadt’s true performance level is somewhere in between his two starting stints, as he has a 45th-percentile expected ERA. In particular, Pfaadt has been excellent at inducing ground balls, which could exacerbate one of St. Louis’ biggest issues. He also hasn’t given up a ton of hard hits, which could be useful against one of the league’s most powerful lineups, and while he neither generates many whiffs nor strikeouts, at least he has one of the league’s best fielding teams behind him. I’m not expecting ace-level production from Pfaadt, but given that he’s been slightly better on the road and St. Louis has had the league’s third-worst home offense, five innings and two earned runs, as he’s posted in each of his last two games, is a reasonable expectation.
McGreevy should have an advantage in the starting pitching matchup, but not as much of one as basic stats would suggest. In 19 starts this season, he’s pitched to a 2.92 ERA, giving up two or fewer earned runs on 14 separate occasions, including one run across 6.1 innings last Friday against Arizona. However, Statcast numbers really aren’t a fan of McGreevy’s repertoire; he has just a 5.35 expected ERA and a fifth-percentile expected batting average. Like Pfaadt, he really struggles to produce whiffs or strikeouts, putting a lot of pressure on the comparatively mediocre fielders behind him against one of the league’s best bat-to-ball lineups. Additionally, McGreevy ranks in the bottom quintile in both barrel rate and average exit velocity, which the soft-hitting Diamondbacks should welcome. Regression is probably due to hit at some point, though he has a sub-2 ERA at home and Arizona has been horrific on the road, so his pitching well tonight wouldn’t be a surprise.
Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals pick, best bet
Best Bet: Arizona Diamondbacks Moneyline (+101)
Both men have significant enough track records that I’m not willing to give Pfaadt the edge over McGreevy, but Statcast numbers demonstrate that the gulf between them isn’t as big as the raw stats suggest. I trust the Diamondbacks’ bullpen slightly more, and they just took two of three when these teams met last week.
Strong Lean: Under 7.5 (-112)
It isn’t very common that home-road splits simultaneously favor both pitchers in a matchup, but given Chase Field’s status as one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the majors and Busch Stadium’s status as one of the most pitcher-friendly, it makes sense.
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