Three straight wins have kept the Rays (59-42) in control of the AL East. Just days ahead of August 3rd’s trade deadline, Tampa Bay is looking the part of a World Series contender. The same can’t be said for the Blue Jays (46-56), who might be the biggest disappointment in baseball this season. If Toronto is going to make a miraculous second-half turnaround, salvaging a game in this series on Thursday is crucial. Which of these division rivals will come out on top this afternoon?
The Rays are -112 favorites over the Blue Jays, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s showdown between Tampa Bay and Toronto on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rays vs. Blue Jays pick, best bet today
- Rays vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-110): Seymour, for all his struggles, has stellar peripherals. A feeble Toronto lineup could be just what he needs to get back on track. As for Bieber, he’s slowly beginning to round into form following a shaky first few starts. Tampa Bay’s power-starved lineup could struggle against the fly ball specialist.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction, preview
Ian Seymour will be taking the ball this afternoon for Tampa Bay. It’s been a mediocre season from the right-hander, one of the more unproven names in this rotation. He’s recorded a 4.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 79 strikeouts (10.5 K/9) over 67.1 innings. However, it’s fair to say that the 27-year-old has gotten a bit unlucky. Per Savant, Seymour has a solid 3.67 xERA. In addition, he sits within the 76th percentile in xBA (.216), chase rate (33.0%), whiff rate (29.4%) and strikeout rate (27.9%). Unfortunately, a fastball that tops out at just over 91 MPH limits his ceiling. It’s worth noting that the hurler has gotten rocked over 26.0 innings on the road (6.23 ERA).
In theory, this should be a prime bounce back spot for Seymour. The Blue Jays are last in runs per game (3.94) and on-base percentage (.302). The team has struggled to generate any kind of offense, due in part to a lack of power. Kazuma Okamoto and George Springer are the only Toronto batters to hit double-digit home runs this season. Seymour does have a tendency to hand out base on balls (3.5 BB/9). However, the Jays are averaging an American League-worst 2.72 walks per game.
Seymour’s favorite pitch is the changeup, which he’s thrown 31% of the time this season. Against that offering, Toronto batters are slashing .215/.257/.354.
On the other side, it’ll be Shane Bieber making his sixth start of the season. Since coming off of the injured list last month, the right-hander hasn’t looked like himself. He’s currently on the hook for a 5.70 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 19 strikeouts (7.2 K/9). However, the former Cy Young winner comes into Thursday’s contest with a bit of momentum. He’s allowed just two total runs over his previous 11.2 innings of work. Throughout his nine-year career, Bieber’s kryptonite has been giving up hard contact. The Rays aren’t equipped to take advantage of this weakness. Tampa Bay ranks last in baseball with a 5.7% barrel rate and 34.7% hard-hit rate.
The Rays are a dangerous, albeit top-heavy, group at the plate. Despite minuscule power numbers, the team is 13th in runs scored (458). That’s due in large part to baseball’s second-best batting average (.261) and fifth-best on-base percentage (.334). However, as previously mentioned, those skills don’t line up with Bieber’s weaknesses on the mound. The two-time All-Star has posted a 3.09 ERA over his previous five meetings with Tampa Bay. The visitors have a trio of standout bats in Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz and Jonathan Aranda. However, outside of those three, there isn’t much to write home about. Only two other Tampa Bay hitters with 100+ plate appearances this season has a wRC+ greater than 100.
Best Bet: Rays vs. Blue Jays under 8.5 runs (-110)
Seymour’s advanced metrics suggest he’s due for a much better second half of the season. Facing the league’s worst offense could be just what the doctor ordered. An inability to work the count and get walks could limit any traffic on the base paths for the Blue Jays. On the other side, Bieber is finally starting to look like his old self. Tampa Bay’s lineup relies heavily on the Big Three at the plate. If Toronto’s hurler keeps the ball in the park, this Rays lineup shouldn’t pose too many problems.
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