When Mexico opened the World Cup at the Estadio Azteca last Thursday, it hardly could’ve gotten off to a better start. Goals from Julián Quiñones in the ninth minute and Raúl Jiménez in the 67th sent the country into a frenzy, and El Tri’s result never looked in doubt.
The critical match for Mexico will take place this evening at 9 p.m. ET (7 p.m. local) in Guadalajara, when El Tri take on South Korea, which beat Czechia to sit second in the group. If both teams win their final games, as expected, this match could determine who emerges as the Group A winner.
Mexico is a +105 favorite to claim all three points at DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Taegeuk Warriors are +300. There are +230 odds that the teams will draw.
Below, I’ll break down this potential group decider and provide my favorite bet.
Mexico vs. South Korea Best Bet:
- South Korea Moneyline (+300): Despite South Korea’s only winning 2-1 to Mexico’s 2-0, it had a more dominant offensive performance against a higher-quality opponent than El Tri faced. Both teams like to press defensively and slow it down in the attack, but the Taegeuk Warriors are better on progressive passes and crosses, making them good value.
Mexico vs. South Korea prediction, pick
Both of these teams impressed on the opening day of the tournament, although El Tri faced easier competition than South Korea did. South Africa looked so thoroughly unprepared for the competition that it was difficult to ascertain just how well Mexico played, but Quiñones aside, El Tri were relatively passive. The Taegeuk Warriors faced stiffer competition in the much bigger Czechia, and they were extremely strong on the ball, dominating possession. Zooming out, Mexico’s form is better — it hasn’t lost in any competition in 2026, while South Korea suffered a dominant defeat at the hands of the Ivory Coast — but a friendly is far different from a competitive environment. El Tri’s status as the favorite is fair, given their raucous home crowd and Guadalajara’s elevation, but it would be unsurprising to see the Taegeuk Warriors pull off the upset.
Many of El Tri’s players weren’t well-known on the global stage prior to the tournament, as a plurality play locally in Liga MX, but the win over Bafana Bafana was a proper team effort. Guadalajara winger Roberto Alvarado slung in four crosses, and his teammate, United States-born Brian Gutiérrez, attempted four shots and drew the critical red card against Sithole. All in all, Mexico was clinical moving forward, completing 89.8% of its passes, including a solid 77.6% of its passes into the final third, and it produced 1.46 expected goals’ worth of chances. Alvarado’s cross in to Jiménez for his long-awaited goal was tremendous. Additionally, El Tri had the most dominant defensive performance of any team, allowing just two touches in the box and 0.07 expected goals’ worth of chances, winning ground duels at the eighth-highest rate and aerial duels at the third-highest. That’s in part a result of South Africa’s awful performance, but the tenacity of CDM Erik Lira in particular was remarkable. Mexico’s high press also directly resulted in Quiñones’ goal. Between the sticks, it’s difficult to judge much about Raúl Rangel’s performance, given that he never faced any trouble, but he’s consistently done the job for Guadalajara.
South Korea also had an exceptional opening game, and Hwang In-beom has been one of the competition’s breakout stars so far. The Taegeuk Warriors were consistently aggressive in the attack, managing the fourth-most expected goals of any team, and Hwang finally netted a much-deserved equalizer with a gorgeous chip in the 67th minute. Oh Hyeon-gyu, a standout for Beşiktaş this season, came on for Son Heung-min as a substitute and managed to score with his only shot. South Korea’s passing wasn’t quite as sharp as El Tri’s, but it was among the most accurate with its crosses, consistently putting the ball in dangerous positions. Additionally, the Taegeuk Warriors defended well from open play, allowing just 0.83 expected goals, and they won both their ground and aerial duels at high rates. South Korea pressed the eighth-most sequences, and while it didn’t produce many turnovers leading to a shot, it managed to draw seven more fouls than it committed and played the offsides trap well. Kim Seung-gyu plays in relative anonymity with FC Tokyo, but he made three huge saves.
It should be a pretty competitive match, because both teams play similarly, pressing on defense and playing patiently in the attack. The Taegeuk Warriors definitely had the more impressive attacking performance against a defense with higher quality (at least on paper), but Mexico didn’t have to keep its foot on the gas given the sorry state of South Africa’s attack. Despite El Tri’s having a higher pass completion percentage, I trust South Korea more to break the press because it attempts more progressive passes and because Mexico was less effective in the passing lanes, intercepting fewer. The Taegeuk Warriors also played more effectively as a team, while Quiñones took some questionable shots with better opportunities available. In my mind, this is a 50-50 game, which means South Korea at +300 is the play.
Best Bet: South Korea Moneyline (+300)
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