Ultimately, it’s likely that one of the favorites will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, as only eight teams have ever lifted the trophy in the first 22 iterations of the competition. That champion will go down in history, and the images of them lifting the World Cup will become synonymous with the tournament.
Often, though, it’s not the runner-up that’s the second-most memorable team, especially if a particularly surprising country makes a deep run. In 2022, that squad was Morocco, which became the first African team ever to make the semifinals after knocking out 2010 champions Spain on penalties in the Round of 16 and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal in the quarterfinals. France will be remembered for winning the 2018 tournament, but so, too, will hosts Russia, who made it to the quarterfinals after…knocking out 2010 champions Spain on penalties in the Round of 16 despite being the lowest-ranked team in the tournament.
Which team will captivate global attention in 2026 by making a deep run? I’ll dive into my top two contenders below:
Best Dark Horse Bets at the 2026 World Cup
- Ivory Coast to Make the Quarterfinals (+1000): The Elephants have one of the most well-rounded teams in Africa, with a combination of tantalizing young talents and experience in major tournaments. They also have a relatively doable group that features three deeply flawed teams.
- South Korea to Make the Quarterfinals (+650): The Taegeuk Warriors should be in good position to come out of Group A in either first or second, setting themselves up for an easy Round of 32 draw against the Group B runner-up or a third-place team.
Which teams could be dark horses at the 2026 World Cup?
Ivory Coast
Group E could be the most chaotic among any group at the tournament, as all four teams have strong defenses and flawed attacks. Germany is the weakest among the non-host Pot 1 teams, as it’s lower-ranked in the FIFA World Rankings than even the Pot 2 Atlas Lions, and Ecuador scored just 14 total goals in World Cup qualifying, four of which came against a relatively weak Bolivia side. The fourth team, Curaçao, is the smallest nation ever to advance to the World Cup by both area and population, and it just got throttled 4-0 in a friendly by Scotland, which isn’t exactly the strongest team in Europe. By ELO rankings, the Tricolor are the strongest team in the group and Die Nationalelf second, with a huge gap to Ivory Coast, but the Elephants scored 30 goals and conceded none in African qualifying. Perhaps they’ll draw with Ecuador, beat the Blue Wave, and upset Germany on the final day to top the group after Die Nationalelf had already guaranteed qualification on six points.
Senegal and Morocco have attracted the most attention among African teams, and as the two highest-ranked teams on the continent by both FIFA and ELO rankings, it’s hard to argue with that. However, by transfer market value, Ivory Coast has the most valuable team on the continent and the 11th-most valuable overall, while Ecuador sits 19th and Curaçao 45th. Market value isn’t the only predictor of a team’s performance on the pitch, as it’s heavily dependent on age and Yan Diomandé is only 19, but who’s to say that the teenager doesn’t experience another immediate leap after a 12-goal, eight-assist Bundesliga season? The Elephants have a strong balance of talent and experience, as 13 of the 26 players on their World Cup squad also won AFCON in 2024 on home soil.
Ivory Coast would also have a doable knockout draw whether it wins the group or finishes as the runner-up. If it wins, it would have a nearly guaranteed victory against a third-place side in the Round of 32, and though France in the Round of 16 would be a major challenge, the Elephants could have enough attacking talent to put one past Les Bleus’ weakened defense, especially if William Saliba misses any time. Ivory Coast could also finish as the runner-up before facing either the Lions of Teranga or perhaps Norway in the Round of 32 and Brazil or Morocco in the Round of 16. All of those teams are strong but beatable; the Elephants took down Senegal on their way to the 2024 AFCON title and drew with the Atlas Lions in a 2023 friendly. A Round of 16 run at +250 might not be enough to make the Ivory Coast a true dark horse, but a quarterfinals run at +1000 would.
South Korea
South Korea might’ve been the dark horse of the 2022 World Cup had the Atlas Lions not made their semifinals run, as the Taegeuk Warriors picked up four points in the group stage by drawing with Uruguay and defeating Portugal, ultimately finishing second and knocking the Celeste out of the competition. They were also the dark horse in 2002, when they managed to finish fourth on home soil and become the first (and, so far, only) Asian nation ever to make a World Cup semifinal. South Korea hasn’t been as widely-discussed as a dark horse as Japan, the only AFC country with realistic World Cup dreams, but its squad is pretty strong in its own right.
Captain Son Heung-Min has been out of the spotlight now after making the move to MLS, and he’s had a poor season so far, failing to find the back of the net. Still, Son is arguably the greatest Asian player ever for a reason, and it wasn’t too long ago that he scored 10 goals in 13 appearances in qualifying. Additionally, Lee Kang-In has been a regular contributor for back-to-back Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain, and Oh Hyeon-Gyu has been excellent since making the move to Turkish side Beşiktaş. While the Taegeuk Warriors suffered an injury setback in friendlies when Cho Yumin was ruled out for the tournament, they have plenty of depth in the defense, as youngster Lee Hanbeom is a regular starter for Midtjylland.
South Korea mainly achieves dark horse status because of its friendly path. The Taegeuk Warriors were drawn into Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa, and Czechia, and while that’s a group they could top, they might be better off finishing second behind Mexico. If South Korea wins Group A, it’ll face a third-place team in the Round of 32 but come up against England in the Round of 16. However, if the Taegeuk Warriors finish second, they’d play the runner-up in Group B (which features Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Qatar, and Switzerland) in the Round of 32 and either the Group F winner (Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, or Tunisia) or Group C runner-up (Brazil, Morocco, Scotland, or Haiti) in the Round of 16. South Korea would likely be favored in the Round of 32 and an underdog in the Round of 16, but the Seleçao don’t have a reliable No. 9 and the Atlas Lions are flawed in the midfield.
If the Taegeuk Warriors manage to make it to the quarterfinals, their journey would likely come to an end against France, but given that they have just +40000 odds to win the tournament and +650 odds to reach that stage, I’d call that sufficient for dark horse status.
Also Considered: Senegal (+9000), Paraguay (+30000)
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