On an MLB slate brimming with must-watch action, tonight’s contest in Orange County doesn’t move the needle. The Rockies (24-38) are on pace for another last place season, while the Angels (23-39) remain mired in mediocrity. With that being said, sometimes the worst games deliver the most value for bettors. Who has the edge going into Wednesday’s interleague matchup?
The Angels are favorites (-149) over the Rockies, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Colorado and Los Angeles on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Rockies vs. Angels pick, best bet
Rockies vs. Angels prediction, preview
Anaheim native Michael Lorenzen will get the nod this evening in SoCal. Disaster is putting it kindly when it comes to his season-long numbers. Over 57.1 innings pitched, the right-hander is on the hook for a 7.22 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. Still, as is always the case with Rockies starters, there is a caveat. Taking the mound half the time at hitter-friendly Coors Field can take its toll. Lorenzen has delivered a far more respectable 5.04 ERA on the road this season. That’s not great, but it’s a step up from ‘worst hurler in the sport’ bad. Regardless, the veteran has coughed up at least four earned runs in four of his previous six appearances.
Despite a late-career resurgence from Mike Trout, the Angels remain one of the worst offenses in baseball. That’s especially true at home, where the team is putting up the third-fewest runs per game (3.50). Los Angeles is a bit tricky to fully figure out. On one hand, the Halos rank tenth in homers (72); on the other, they’re 26th in batting average (.231). In short, this group is truly all or nothing at the plate. Other than Trout, Zach Neto and Oswald Peraza, no Angels regular has recorded a wRC+ above 100 this season. Still, Lorenzen’s propensity for giving up homers (1.6 HR/9) could play a factor tonight.
On the other side, it’ll be Walbert Urena toeing the slab on Wednesday. Over ten appearances (eight starts), he’s produced a 2.44 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 41 strikeouts (8.3 K/9). The Dominican has some issues when it comes to command, but he’s shown enough over limited action this season. That includes quality efforts against above-average Rays and Athletics lineups. Per Savant, Urena sits inside the top 80th percentile in xBA (.204), fastball velocity (97.7 MPH), average exit velocity (86.9 MPH), hard-hit rate (32.5%) and ground ball rate (51.6%). The rookie has surrendered one earned run or less in five of his last six outings.
Whenever they aren’t playing at high altitude, the Rockies wield a fairly pedestrian offense. The club is averaging 4.00 runs per game on the road, tied for sixth-lowest in the majors. Mickey Moniak’s ankle injury makes this group even weaker at the plate as well. Urena has struggled with his command (12.9 BB%). However, Colorado isn’t the best equipped to take advantage of that weakness. The team ranks 26th in baseball with 3.05 walks per game. Keeping that in mind, an offensive outburst doesn’t seem all too likely.
Best Bet: Angels -1.5 (+137)
Even if Lorenzen is better on the road, he’s been atrocious according to most advanced metrics this season. On the other hand, Urena is already establishing himself as a reliable arm for Los Angeles. Neither of these offenses are particularly impressive, but I’d rather back a healthier Los Angeles lineup at home. Given their advantage on the mound, the Angels are poised for a comfortable win tonight.
