The Seattle Mariners have finally caught fire over the last couple of weeks, now riding an eight-game winning streak into tonight’s matchup. They’re looking to close out a sweep against the New York Mets this afternoon, the latter of whom just cant find their footing and remains at the bottom of the division standings. Will the brooms come out today at 3:40 p.m. ET?
Here’s a betting prediction and pick for today’s Mets vs. Mariners matchup courtesy of MLB odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Mets vs. Mariners prediction, preview
New York Mets
There are so few positives to report about the Mets’ season. At 26-35, they remain at the bottom of the NL East standings and have a run differential of -19 on the year. They’ve gone 4-6 across their last 10 and just dropped back-to-back games to start this series, and for what it’s worth, they’re only 11-20 on the road. New York produces just 4.00 runs per game, though that mark decreased by a notable margin to just 3.52 on the road. The Mets’ bats are arguably the worst in baseball with a .649 OPS that ranks dead last and a .225/.291/.358 slash line. There’s likely poor luck involved with a .260 BABIP that’s third lowest, but an 0.36 BB/K ratio leaves something to be desired and they have a .133 ISO despite knocking 61 homers. The team’s .290 wOBA is also worst in the MLB. The Mets’ arms, however, are quite solid overall. The club has a 3.85 ERA that sits ninth with a 1.30 WHIP and a 14.5% K-BB%, and they’ve underperformed a 3.70 FIP at that. The bullpen splits also look quite good at a 3.53 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 15.7% K-BB%. It seems this may be a pen that gets raided at the trade deadline if the club can’t turn things around.
The Mets start RHP Freddy Peralta today, who has a 3-4 record across 12 starts. He brings a 3.55 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 68 Ks across 66.0 IP. He relies heavily on a fastball/changeup mix and has put forth a really solid campaign so far, despite his record.
Seattle Mariners
As for the Mariners, the first couple months of the season were filled with inconsistency. Now, this club is flying after winning eight straight contests to improve to 33-29, first in the AL West. Their run differential of +36 is actually second best in the entire American League, and they’re 19-15 at home this year. Seattle’s offense continues to round into form and is up to 4.29 runs per game with a .717 OPS that ranks 11th in baseball. A .234/.318/.399 slash line also comes with a .165 ISO that’s good for seventh overall, and given a .276 BABIP, the lineup has actually been on the unluckier end of things. The M’s also have 81 homers, good for fifth in the sport. While a 23.1% K% is on the higher end, they have an 0.40 BB/K ratio, too. Seattle’s pitching staff is elite and has carried the club when the bats aren’t firing — a 3.58 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 16.5% K-BB% all rank in the top five across the entire MLB. The bullpen alone brings a 3.49 ERA that ranks sixth with a 1.29 WHIP and 14.1% K-BB%. If they’re truly hitting their stride, this could be a very scary team over the summer and beyond.
RHP George Kirby takes the mound for the M’s, bringing a 5-4 record in 12 starts so far. His ERA is 3.77 and his WHIP is 1.22, but he’s not a high-strikeout guy with only 59 in 74.0 IP. However, he has good velocity on his fastball, generates a lot of chases, keeps his walk rate down and forces plenty of ground balls.
Mets vs. Mariners pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Mariners as -149 Moneyline favorites at home today. The Mets come in with +123 odds to win outright. The total sits at seven combined runs between these two teams.
Best Bet: George Kirby under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+131)
Kirby has been mired in a cold stretch recently, allowing 13 earned runs over his last three starts. However, today looks like a perfect bounce-back spot. It’s not every day that a pitcher gets to take on the team with the worst OPS in baseball. The Mets’ OPS over the last two weeks is an abysmal .610 with a .193/.263/.347 slash line and a .274 wOBA that falls second-to-last. They’re also worse on the road with a .622 OPS compared to a .677 mark at home. Plus, New York has the ninth-highest chase rate in the MLB, which plays well since Kirby’s lands in the 92nd percentile this year, too. He should get the better of the Mets here and keep things to one or fewer earned runs.
