It was the Guardians (35-27) who came out firing on Tuesday, earning an impressive 9-4 victory. Cleveland, currently sitting atop the AL Central, is looking to establish itself as a Junior Circuit contender. Earning a series victory on the road against the Yankees (36-24) would go a long way towards legitimizing that claim. New York, despite last night’s setback, will hand the ball to Gerrit Cole this evening. Will the former Cy Young winner lead his club to a win in the Bronx tonight?
The Yankees are favorites (-156) over the Guardians, with the over/under set at seven runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Wednesday’s showdown between Cleveland and New York on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Guardians vs. Yankees pick, best bet
Guardians vs. Yankees prediction, preview
Cole might draw most of the headlines, but Gavin Williams is a terrific pitcher in his own right. Through 76.1 innings this season, the right-hander has notched a 3.07 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 88 strikeouts (10.4 K/9). He comes into this one on a heater, having allowed just three earned runs over his last 21.0 frames (1.29 ERA). Part of what makes the 26-year-old so special is his ability to fool opposing batters. Williams ranks inside the 87th percentile in chase rate (34.5%), whiff rate (30.7%) and K rate (29.0%). His 88 punch outs trail only Dylan Cease (92 K) for the American League lead.
The Yankees are an offensive juggernaut, especially in the Bronx. When playing at home, the team is averaging an MLB-best 5.63 runs per game. With that being said, Aaron Judge (shoulder) remains sidelined this evening. Even though there are still several other stars in this lineup, losing the best hitter on Earth is a major blow. As previously mentioned, Williams excels at generating Ks. In comparison, New York hitters have recorded the eighth-most strikeouts per game this season (8.73). Compared to southpaws, the Pinstripes have an OPS nearly 50 points lower against right-handed pitching (.747).
As previously mentioned, it’ll be Cole toeing the slab for New York. So far, so good for the 35-year-old during his much-anticipated return from injury. Over two starts (12.2 IP), he still has yet to surrender an earned run. While some regression is inevitable, it’s clear that the six-time All-Star remains a force on the mound. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of Cole’s recovery is an average fastball velocity hovering just over 96 MPH. That level of speed, combined with exceptional command, makes the veteran a headache for opposing batters.
It’s been a while, but Cole tends to perform well in this matchup. He’s notched a stellar 2.37 ERA over his previous five meetings with Cleveland, postseason included. Last night’s nine-run outburst for the visitors was impressive, especially with Yankees hurler Cam Schlittler on the hill. Regardless, the Guardians only rank 19th in runs scored (258), 22nd in home runs (57) and 22nd in OPS (.696). Including last night’s game, Cleveland has only scored 30 runs over its previous ten outings. That’s the third-worst mark in baseball during that stretch.
Best Bet: Guardians vs. Yankees under 7.5 total runs (-132)
The Guardians prefer winning games through exceptional pitching and solid defense. Williams against a Judge-less Yankees lineup checks most of the boxes going into Wednesday’s matchup. On the other side, I’m buying into Cole’s renaissance on the mound. A home start against light-hitting Cleveland shouldn’t pose many issues for the right-hander. Expect these two starters to keep things low-scoring tonight.
