Few pitchers in baseball have been as impressive this season as Kyle Harrison. The Brewers (36-21) ace has dominated through two months of play. Now, he’ll get a chance to best his old team, the Giants (23-37), on Tuesday night. A struggling San Francisco squad needs every win it can get going forward. However, that’s easier said than done against World Series-caliber Milwaukee.
The Brewers are favorites (-273) over the Giants, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between San Francisco and Milwaukee on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Giants vs. Brewers pick, best bet
Giants vs. Brewers prediction, preview
If there’s one thing the Giants tend to do well, it’s building a respectable pitching staff. The newest member of this rotation is Trevor McDonald, currently enjoying his third season in the big leagues. Through 29.0 innings this season, the right-hander has recorded a 4.34 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 27 strikeouts (8.4 K/9). Those aren’t the most impressive statistics, but a 3.24 FIP and 3.76 xERA suggests there’s room for improvement. The 25-year-old succeeds due to superior command and keeping the ball on the ground. McDonald ranks inside the top 90th percentile in walk rate (4.9%), barrel rate (3.6%) and ground ball rate (60.7%).
The Brewers are a true throwback, putting up numbers on offense despite unimpressive power. Milwaukee has jacked an MLB-worst 40 home runs, yet the team is tied for sixth in total runs scored (284). Getting both Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich back during the month of May has certainly helped the lineup. Despite lacking a true middle of the order bat, the Brew Crew makes up for it with depth. Seven different players with at least 100 at-bats have managed to produce a wRC+ of 100 or higher. On the flip side, McDonald’s stuff could play well in this matchup. Per Savant, Milwaukee batters own baseball’s lowest launch angle (9.2), sixth-worst barrel rate (6.7%) and fourth-worst expected batting average (.239).
As previously mentioned, it’s been a season to remember for Kyle Harrison. The former top prospect has bounced around the league, joining Boston last season as part of the Rafael Devers trade. However, he finally appears to have found a home in Milwaukee. Over 51.2 innings pitched, the southpaw has notched a 1.57 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 61 strikeouts (10.6 K/9). The 24-year-old hasn’t allowed a run over his last three starts (18.0 IP). Unlike McDonald, Harrison prefers generating outs through fly balls. Opponents have mustered a minuscule 28.9% hard-hit rate against the lefty.
Granted, you don’t need an ace on the mound to silence the Giants. They’re averaging just 3.90 runs per game this season, tied with Philadelphia for fourth-worst in baseball. The team’s OPS is 20 points lower (.682) against left-handed pitching as well. It’s worth noting that San Francisco has been slightly better when playing away from home. Still, that doesn’t guarantee success at spacious American Family Field. Milwaukee’s home turf ranks as baseball’s fourth-friendliest locale for pitchers over the past three seasons.
Best Bets: Giants vs. Brewers under 7.5 runs (-125)
It’s easy to back Harrison and the NL Central-leading Brewers tonight. However, it’s not as if Milwaukee’s power-deprived lineup has dominated this season. McDonald’s ground ball heavy approach could befuddle the home team on Tuesday. Given the pitching talent on both sides, runs should be at a premium. Keeping that in mind, the under feels like a safer bet this evening.
