American League East rivals are set to meet this evening at Fenway Park. Both the Orioles (28-32) and Red Sox (25-33) have fallen well short of expectations this season. Still, there’s plenty of time left to turn things around. Which of these struggling squads is poised for a big win on Tuesday?
The Red Sox are favorites (-136) over the Orioles, with the over/under set at 8.5 runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Tuesday’s showdown between Baltimore and Boston on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Red Sox pick, best bet
Orioles vs. Red Sox prediction, preview
Shane Baz will take the mound for Baltimore tonight. Since getting traded to the team from Tampa Bay this offseason, it’s been a mixed bag for the fifth-year pro. Through 11 starts this season, he’s recorded a 4.48 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 57 strikeouts (8.0 K/9). However, he comes into this one with momentum. Baz has allowed five earned runs combined over his previous 20.0 innings pitched (2.25 ERA). That includes two starts against the Rays and one against the Nationals. Both clubs rank within the top seven teams in OPS this season.
On paper, tonight’s matchup is a major step down in competition. The Red Sox have been a mess offensively this season, especially when playing in front of their fans. They’re averaging an MLB-worst 3.21 runs per game at home. To make matters worse, outfielder Roman Anthony (finger) is currently sidelined. Fellow hitters Willson Contreras (wrist/hand) and Ceddanne Rafaela (back) are both questionable tonight. That’s bad news for a group that already struggled to generate power. Boston has slugged just 44 home runs this season; only the Brewers (40) have hit fewer.
If there’s any reason for optimism in Beantown, it’s due to a solid pitching staff. Even with ace Garrett Crochet (shouler) injured, this rotation has managed to stay afloat. That’s due in part to Connelly Early, currently enjoying a terrific rookie campaign. Over 61.0 innings of work, he’s notched a 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 57 strikeouts. During his most recent appearance, the 24-year-old held a formidable Braves lineup scoreless over seven frames. In fact, Early has allowed more than three earned runs only once over 11 starts this season.
It’s not as if Tuesday’s contest is the most difficult matchup on paper. The Orioles are averaging 4.00 runs per game on the road this season, eighth-lowest in baseball. As a unit, Baltimore has recorded the league’s seventh-worst OPS against left-handed pitching (.652). When Early last faced the O’s, he tossed 6.2 innings of two-run ball at Camden Yards. The 24-year-old has thrown either a changeup (21%) or slider (19%) on 40% of his pitches. Against those two offerings, Baltimore has produced a .232 batting average, .277 on-base percentage and .279 wOBA.
Best Bet: Orioles vs. Red Sox under 8.5 total runs (-105)
Neither Baz or Early are household names, but both are proven MLB starters. Still, Tuesday’s pick isn’t really about backing tonight’s pitchers. Neither of these lineups, especially Boston, deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point. Baltimore’s struggles on the road and against southpaws are concerning. The Red Sox are injured and ineffective, especially at home. Keeping that in mind, it’s difficult to envision these two clubs combining for 9+ runs tonight.
