It’s been a brutal start for the Phillies (12-19), fourth in the NL East. Things have gotten so bad that Philadelphia has already fired manager Rob Thomson, replaced by bench coach Don Mattingly. It’s a different story for the Marlins (15-16), looking to build off of 2025’s solid second half. Miami, while flawed, has enough pieces to make a postseason push. Taking care of business against a division rival tonight would be quite the statement for this young club.
The Phillies are favorites (-118) over the Marlins, with the over/under set at eight runs. Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Friday’s showdown between Philadelphia and Miami on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Phillies vs. Marlins prediction, preview
For all of their hitting woes (more on that later), the Phillies have some hope tonight. That’s due to the presence of Zack Wheeler, recently activated off of the injured list. During his season debut last week, the three-time All-Star tossed five innings of two-run ball against Atlanta. Prior to undergoing season-ending thoracic outlet decompression surgery in 2025, the righty recorded a 2.70 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 195 strikeouts over 149.2 innings. Granted, a return to form is wishful thinking at the moment. Still, this is a spot Wheeler has excelled in before. The 35-year-old has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his last five games against the Marlins.
Getting some kind of offensive production shouldn’t be this difficult for the Phillies. After all, their lineup is loaded with former All-Stars. Unfortunately, this is a group that’s been struggling to get it going all season. Philadelphia ranks 28th in baseball with an average of 3.81 runs per game. The Fightins have a .227 team batting average, tied with the Mets for second-worst in the National League. Names such as Alec Bohm (18 wRC+), Bryson Stott (47 wRC+), and Trea Turner (96 wRC+) have been lackluster at best. It’s worth noting that the Phillies have scored 6+ runs in four of their last seven outings.
Philadelphia will have its work cut out tonight against Marlins ace Eury Perez. The right-hander is in many ways his own worst enemy. Despite possessing elite stuff, he’s struggled with command this season. The Dominican’s 1.40 WHIP is primarily the result of a 4.0 BB/9 ratio. Still, it’s likely only a matter of time until the talented 23-year-old turns it around. Throughout his career, Perez has been a far better pitcher at home (2.45 ERA) than on the road (5.17 ERA). The youngster is a true fireballer, throwing a fastball on 54% of his pitches at an average of 98.1 MPH. The Phillies have an expected batting average of .197 against pitches 96 MPH or faster this season.
The real challenge for Miami will be getting something going against Wheeler. As previously mentioned, the veteran has had his fair share of success in this spot. Still, these aren’t the same old Marlins; since August of 2025, this lineup ranks 13th in baseball with 391 runs scored. This season, five different Fish regulars have a wRC+ of 100 or greater. In addition, they’re tied for the seventh-best batting average in the league (.250).
Phillies vs. Marlins pick, best bet
It’s never easy to go against Wheeler, but this isn’t exactly a piece of cake. In addition to facing an underrated Marlins offense, he shouldn’t expect much run support. Philadelphia can’t hit anyone right now, let alone a talented hurler at a pitcher-friendly park. Perez, when taking the mound in South Beach, delivers ace-caliber numbers. In addition, Miami has done well at home (10-6) while the Phillies struggle on the road (4-9). Add it all up, and I’ll back the slight underdogs tonight.
