Welcome to the most important series of the season. Seriously.
With two weeks left till the playoffs, the White Sox travel to Cleveland sitting just a half-game up in the AL Central standings. With the tie-breaker also still undecided, that basically makes the marathon first five months of 2026 a dead heat. It’s now a sprint to the finish and, somehow, a first-round bye.
Let’s also not forget that the Guardians are currently only one game up on the Blue Jays in the hunt for the final AL Wild Card spot, so this is a series that literally will reverberate internationally. That’s fun.
Let’s dive into this divisional rivalry and make a couple picks on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
White Sox vs. Guardians prediction, preview
Gavin Williams feels like the main character in tonight’s contest. Despite the occasional blow-up, the right-hander has been pitching some of the best baseball of his career the past 10 weeks, even if his 3.59 ERA since July 9 looks relatively mundane. When you dig a little deeper, it’s an 11-start span where Williams has managed a 2.57 xERA, primarily thanks to a jaw-dropping 42.5% strikeout rate. Williams is still giving up hard contact when opponents are actually able to produce a batted ball event, but that’s an issue that is obviously mitigated by striking out double-digit batters in eight of his last 11 appearances. Heck, for the season as a whole, there’s only two pitchers with more strikeouts than Williams: Dylan Cease and Jacob Misiorowski. That’s some pretty solid company.
So, the Guardians have their workhorse ace toeing the rubber this evening. On the other side, the White Sox are getting a little bit more creative. Not only did they push Sean Burke back to get him in this all-important series, but they’ll have him work behind an opener in the form of Sean Newcomb. The lefty has been quite good in 2026, and he’ll look to neutralize the potent left-handed duo at the top of Cleveland’s order — Steven Kwan and Chase DeLauter. Then, it’ll be time for Burke. The 26-year-old has been amazing this season, registering a 3.58 ERA and a 3.67 FIP across a career-high 156.0 innings. With that said, Burke’s starting to look a little worn down and the cracks are forming. In fact, after conceding seven earned runs to the Pirates in his last outing, Burke owns a 7.52 ERA in his past five appearances. You can see why Will Venable leaned towards Newcomb starting this one.
Chicago also can’t afford an underwhelming performance from the pitching staff, as the offense has been unable to pick up the slack since the calendar flipped over to September. Dating back to the first of the month, the White Sox rank dead-last in MLB in batting average (.200), while they also sit 25th in wRC+ (87) and 28th in wOBA (.295). Munetaka Murakami has been the poster child for this disappointing segment of the season, slashing .114/.204/.250 with a 49.0% strikeout rate in his last 49 plate appearances. Unfortunately, Miguel Vargas and Colson Montgomery haven’t been much better. It’s a bad time to go ice cold.
White Sox vs. Guardians pick, best bet
Best Bet: Guardians ML (-156)
The White Sox have lost five of their last six games, and now they’ll have to face a red-hot Gavin Williams, who sports 2.57 xERA over his last 11 starts. Add in a league-worst batting average (.200) in the month of September, and I’m a little surprised the Guardians aren’t heavier favorites.
Strong Lean: Gavin Williams 9+ Strikeouts (+123)
Williams has double-digit strikeouts in eight of his last 11 outings. Overall, he’s tied for the third-most strikeouts in baseball (228). Meanwhile, the White Sox own the league’s third-highest strikeout rate in September (26.7%).
