Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Monday’s slate: Will Smith and Jackson Merrill.
Let’s break them down.
MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Will Smith | +452 | Smith was able to hit his seventh home run of the season last week on September 8 — against Nick Lodolo and the Reds. The Reds’ southpaw has struggled since coming back from injury on August 11, pitching to a 6.33 ERA and a 6.88 FIP. More importantly, at least for this market, it’s also a stretch where Lodolo has surrendered 2.67 opponent home runs per nine with a staggering 14.0% opponent barrel rate. |
| Jackson Merrill | +325 | Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 29 home runs in 2026 in just 137.2 innings — the sixth-most of any pitcher in the league. Specifically against LHBs, Sugano has conceded 2.43 home runs per nine with a massive 13.1% barrel rate. Merrill is the Padres top lefty bat, and he’s been on fire since the All-Star break, slashing .298/.335/.595 with a .298 ISO. He’s any easy choice to hit a long ball this evening. |
In-depth analysis below.
MLB Home Run Props Analysis
Will Smith 1+ Home Run (+452)
Smith hasn’t exactly been tearing the cover off the baseball since returning from a lengthy IL stint, yet he was able to hit his seventh home run of the season last week on September 8 — against Nick Lodolo and the Reds. To be honest, I’m not sure if that says more about Smith or Lodolo. The Reds’ southpaw has struggled since coming back from his own injury on August 11. In the six starts he’s made in that span, Lodolo’s pitched to a 6.33 ERA and a 6.88 FIP. More importantly, at least for this market, it’s also a stretch where Lodolo has surrendered 2.67 opponent home runs per nine with a staggering 14.0% opponent barrel rate. Add in the always hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park as a setting, and there’s no reason to think Smith can’t go deep off Lodolo for the second time in as many weeks. Teoscar Hernandez (+404) is another name to keep an eye on.
Jackson Merrill 1+ Home Run (+325)
We’re in the middle of September. There’s two weeks left in the regular season. You probably don’t need me to tell you why to use a left-handed hitter against Tomoyuki Sugano, but you know what? I will. One more time. Sugano has allowed 29 home runs in 2026 in just 137.2 innings — the sixth-most of any pitcher in the league. Part of that is pitching half of his games at Coors Field, yet an even bigger part is second percentile marks in both opponent barrel rate (12.1%) and strikeout rate (14.2%). Specifically against LHBs, Sugano has conceded 2.43 home runs per nine with a massive 13.1% barrel rate. It’s not ideal for the Rockies. Merrill is the Padres top lefty bat, and he’s been on fire since the All-Star break, slashing .298/.335/.595 with a .298 ISO. He’s any easy choice to hit a long ball this evening.
