Atlanta heads to Chicago after winning two of three against Philadelphia to maintain its NL East lead at five games. They lost yesterday, however, in most brutal fashion—their bullpen allowed seven runs in the eight inning, and flipped a tied game to a 9-4 defeat. Chicago also dropped its series finale against Pittsburgh, and now shares the top wild-card spot with Philadelphia. Both clubs have reasons to feel reasonably good about their weekends—a relief in potential DEFCON levels, for sure—and clearer vision of what needs to happen for them to succeed in October. Below is my preview, prediction, and pick for today’s baseball game between the Chicago Cubs and the Atlanta Braves.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Cubs vs. Braves prediction, preview
David Peterson’s command has gotten worse each start as a Cub, and I don’t expect him to go deep today. He held Milwaukee to one run Tuesday, yes, but that was lucky. Six hits and three walks allowed limited him to 4.1 innings. Across his last two starts, he has walked seven batters in eight innings. His 5.28 ERA and 5.01 xERA offer little reassurance that consistently better results are around the bend.
Atlanta should get pitches to hit against Peterson’s sinker, which has allowed 51.9% hard contact and a .519 expected slugging against. Matt Olson banged three hits Sunday, including his 39th home run. Michael Harris II also added another three after his four-hit game Saturday. Atlanta will get productive at-bats from at least two hitters Peterson faces left-on-left.
López has his own command issues after allowing six runs in Wednesday’s return from knee inflammation. Tampa Bay rattled him for seven hits and three walks in 4.2 innings. His slider can still miss bats, hovering right around a 34.6% whiff rate, but his four-seamer sits at a 15.9% whiff rate. I’d expect the Cubs to make him establish the fastball before offering many swings on the slider. All this Cubs lineup does is punish fastballs until they hang double digits on the scoreboard. They homered off fastballs on consecutive days: Michael Busch against Skenes’ four-seamer Saturday, then Miguel Amaya against Chandler’s sinker Sunday. PCA also hit nine home runs off four-seamers in the zone during the 30 days leading into September 10.
Braves vs. Cubs pick, best bet
Neither club got through Sunday without using a reliever for multiple innings. Ray Kerr threw three for Atlanta, and Aaron Civale needed 45 pitches for two in Chicago. I wouldn’t expect either manager to get substantial work from those pitchers again Monday. Chicago’s bullpen finished Sunday with 3.2 scoreless innings, so there is a credible case for the relief pitching settling this down. The forecast calls for roughly 71 degrees with a 14 mph west wind at Wrigley.
I’m taking over 9.5 at -105. Peterson’s wobbly arsenal and López’s post-injury ambiguity leave both offenses a reasonable chance to score before the bullpens enter. I expect Atlanta to extend at-bats against Peterson, with Chicago doing its damage when López has to challenge hitters with his lesser-than fastball.
Best bet: Over 9.5 runs (-105)
Projected score: Cubs 6, Braves 5
Best bet: Cubs vs. Braves o9.5 total runs scored (-105)
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