Jordan Spieth
With so many big names in the field for this Signature Event, and with Spieth being a trendy pick two weeks ago at the Valero Texas Open, he should come in with low ownership in one-and-done pools this week, and this is a great time to back the 13-time PGA TOUR winner.
Spieth’s game has been trending up over the last few months. The former Texas Longhorn has made seven straight cuts, and four of these finishes have been top-12 results. Spieth just finished T12th at the Masters last week, and he finished fifth among the stacked field in SG APP. Following Spieth’s final-round 3-under 68, the former Masters champion told the media he had never hit it better at Augusta National and that his putter was why he didn’t contend.
This has been the story for Spieth recently, as he ranks fifth in SG APP, but 51st in SGP when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds. Luckily for Spieth, he now heads to Harbour Town Golf Links, which is a course where approach play is extremely important, but putting, conversely, isn’t. Harbour Town presents some of the smallest putting surfaces of any annual PGA TOUR course. Sticking as many of these greens as possible is a must, but the greens being so tiny puts less of an emphasis on putting, as players won’t face many lengthy putts.
Over the last five years, every winner at Harbour Town has finished the week top-10 in SG APP, but only one of these players has ranked inside the top-20 in SGP. One of these victors was Spieth in 2022, and during his win that week, he gained 4.8 strokes on approach, but lost -2.5 strokes on the greens.
This isn’t the only time Spieth has played well at Harbour Town, either. The 32-year-old has finished inside the top-12 in five of his nine starts at the par 71, including a runner-up following his win in 2022. Spieth has shot 66 or lower in six of his 36 rounds at Harbour Town, with his lowest being a 9-under 62 in 2015, which is one stroke shy of the course record at Harbour Town and one stroke shy of Spieth’s career-low.
That victory at Harbour Town in 2022 is Spieth’s last on the PGA TOUR, and him rejoining the winner’s circle at the track this week would be very fitting. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Spieth carries +3100 odds to win the RBC Heritage.
Past One and Done Tournament Results
The Sony Open: J.J. Spaun (T40)
The American Express: Si Woo Kim (T6)
The Farmers Insurance Open: Will Zalatoris (MC)
WM Phoenix Open: Maverick McNealy (T13)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose (T37)
The Genesis Invitational: Hideki Matsuyama (T28)
Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches: Shane Lowry (T2)
Arnold Palmer Invitational: Rory McIlroy (WD)
THE PLAYERS Championship: Collin Morikawa (WD)
Valspar Championship: Jacob Bridgeman (T14)
Texas Children’s Houston Open: Sam Burns (T21)
Valero Texas Open: Russell Henley (MC)
The Masters: Jon Rahm (T38)
