Shane Lowry
While I usually lean toward being contrarian with my one and done picks, picking Lowry for the Cognizant Classic feels like the right move this week, with this being such a weak field after back-to-back Signature Events. Ryan Gerard is also a strong choice, but Lowry has a much longer resume of succeeding at PGA National, giving him the edge over Gerard.
Mostly due to its overabundance of water hazards and usually windy conditions, PGA National is a volatile course, but despite its unpredictability, Lowry has never missed a cut here in eight starts and he has been in the mix for a win numerous times. In his last four visits to PGA National, Lowry has finished runner-up, T-5th, T-4th and T-11th, in that order. In these last 16 rounds at the par 71, Lowry has shot 68 or better 12 times, including a 65 in 2023. Among the players in this field that have competed at PGA National at least three times, Lowry ranks first in strokes gained per round.
The former Open winner has been playing well recently, carding a top-12 finish in five of his last seven starts worldwide. Lowry has shot under par in 26 of his 28 rounds during this run and he just finished T-8th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his second-to-last start. Lowry ranks eighth in SG APP when we compare this field’s last 24 rounds, which is great news for PGA National, as three of the last five victors at the par 71 have finished the event top-seven in SG APP.
Another encouraging sign for this week is that PGA National presents Bermuda greens and Lowry ranks eighth in total strokes gained when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds at courses with this type of putting surface.
Lowry is tied for the best odds to win the Cognizant Classic on DraftKings Sportsbook at +1950 and he should contend for his fourth PGA TOUR title this week.
Past One and Done Tournament Results
The Sony Open: J.J. Spaun (T40)
The American Express: Si Woo Kim (T6)
The Farmers Insurance Open: Will Zalatoris (MC)
WM Phoenix Open: Maverick McNealy (T13)
AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Justin Rose (T37)
The Genesis Invitational: Hideki Matsuyama (T28)
