The Eastern Conference picture is taking shape early. The New York Liberty are set to run away with the top seed while the Chicago Sky and Connecticut Sun race for the bottom. That leaves the rest of the seeding very much up in the air. The Washington Mystics, Indiana Fever and Atlanta Dream seem destined to battle for 2-4 seeding all year long. Tonight’s contest will be important in deciding that.
For the Fever, seeing how they adjust to life without Caitlin Clark will be interesting. Missing your MVP candidate is never good; hopefully, the absence will be brief. But things could get tough with her on the bench. The good news for Indiana is that her on/offs are less drastic than last season. The Fever have an even net rating in the 20 minutes without Clark, compared to -9.7 last year.
Washington has had injury troubles of its own. Second-year big Aaliyah Edwards remains out with a back injury, Shakira Austin’s status is up in the air, and rookie Georgia Amoore will miss the whole season with an ACL tear. Brittney Sykes has only missed one game, but has been banged up in the early going. It’s not the same as missing a player of Clark’s caliber, but these things add up, and the Mystics wish they were full-tilt for a game this important.
The Fever are 2.5-point favorites on the road and are -148 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total is set at 159 points. Let’s look at the best bets and predictions for this contest.
Prediction for Mystics vs. Fever
No way around it: this will be a tough one for the Fever, and I’m not quite sure why they are favored. Clark elevates the offense in a way that makes life easier for the whole team, allowing their defenders to focus on the gritty end of the floor. Now Aliyah Boston, Natasha Howard and Kelsey Mitchell will have to expend more energy to create offense, perhaps at the expense of their defense.
This is also a defensive matchup where focus and energy will be paramount. Kiki Iriafen is looking to punish opponents on the glass, Sonia Citron can always shake loose for a three, and Sykes is going full tilt at all times. This isn’t quite a stalwart Mystics defense, but they will make you work, and there may not be sufficient energy going around for Indiana.
Pick for Mystics vs. Fever
Washington Mystics moneyline (+120)
I’m very dubious of this Fever team without Clark. Sydney Colson is starting in her place, and I don’t see that going very well. This Mystics team should be able to take advantage of that from the jump.
Going on the road without your superstar is difficult. Doing it against a team of young and hungry Washington players makes it even harder. I’ll take the healthier squad at home with plus odds all day.
