2024 was the year of Caitlin Clark, who set record after record in her senior season at Iowa before finishing fourth in MVP voting as a WNBA rookie, drawing admiration and ire alike. In 2025, she was supposed to complete her ascendancy to the top of the sport, and through four games of the season, she was well on her way to doing so, averaging 19.0 points and 9.3 assists per game so far.
That momentum came to a screeching halt Monday, when Clark was diagnosed with a left quadriceps strain that will keep her out for at least two weeks. At minimum, the injury will force her to miss the Indiana Fever’s next four games, and with the WNBA having just a 44-game season, how the team responds without her could prove vital to its playoff hopes. Ticket prices have plummeted without the face of the league in action.
But Clark’s injury doesn’t just impact the Fever. The Washington Mystics, who are set to play Indiana twice with Clark absent, should be a primary beneficiary of facing a significantly less daunting roster. Veteran Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier could be the biggest winner of all, though.
After recording a triple-double to open her season, Clark had become the favorite to win MVP honors, and she had -105 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of her injury. However, since the Fever’s announcement, Collier has become a -170 favorite for the award, with Clark dropping to +240. Three-time winner A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces is the only other player with better than +1000 odds to win. Since Clark’s injury, 58% of all bets and 85% of the handle have come in on Collier to win MVP.
Collier, last season’s runner-up and Defensive Player of the Year, has had a tremendous start to the 2025 season, averaging 29.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 3.1 combined steals/blocks per game on 56-54-94 shooting splits and leading the Lynx to a 4-0 record, including a win over Wilson’s Aces. Wilson has been spectacular as usual, averaging 20.8 points, 10.8 boards, and 4.3 combined steals/blocks per game, and Las Vegas projects to be a contender. Clark’s scoring numbers and efficiency aren’t as impressive as Collier’s or Wilson’s, but her well-rounded game, offensive gravity, and popularity make her a serious candidate for awards.
Clark’s eventual MVP candidacy will rely on how quickly she can return from her injury and Indiana’s success. The early returns haven’t been great; in 20 minutes without their superstar on the court this season, the Fever have been 15.7 points per 100 possessions worse on offense (although 15.8 points per 100 possessions better on defense), and in 189 minutes in 2024, Indiana was worse without Clark on both sides of the ball. It’s also difficult to predict how long Clark will miss, given that she’s never missed a game due to injury in either college or the pros.
