We’re positively crestfallen to arrive here at the end of MLB’s first ever Rivalry Weekend. There’ve been plenty of surprises both on the scoreboard—hello, Mariners and Angels!—and Boston fans’ wardrobe, what with the release of the Green Monster City Edition jerseys. We’ll bank on some teams to bounce back on Sunday. I’ve already written predictions for Padres vs. Mariners, Dodgers vs. Angels, and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies. Having said that, here are my three favorite baseball bets today based on my game predictions and previews.
Links to DraftKings Sportsbook provided for all bets below!
Dodgers -1.5 (-120) vs. Angels
How fun of the Angels to absolutely blow up Dodgers ride-or-die bettors this weekend in the Battle for the Freeway. No matter. Gonsolin’s been a revelation. He has a 98th-percentile whiff rate and hard-hit rate. The Angels are middling against righties (82 wRC+).
In total, the Dodgers have hit .298 off Angels starter Yusei Kikuchi in 94 at-bats, with a .532 slugging percentage. Dodgers will get right today.
Mariners (+120) at Padres
Michael King and Bryan Woo will keep this game low, so a bet on the under 7.5 runs might be a better play here. But the Mariners are just getting exciting again. They’ve blown out the Padres 9-2 in aggregate in the Vedder Cup so far this weekend. Bryan Woo (2.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) has a stellar .225 xBA.
I want the Mariners to sweep this, and it finally feels like everything around Cal Raleigh is coming together. J-Rod, Arozarena both finally adding a little consistency to their plate approaches. The Mariners have had some serious teeth as underdogs recently (winning four of the last six games they weren’t favored) and should do it again today.
Yankees (-165) vs. Mets
Fried is good. His first season as a Yankee is platinum-level, though. Beyond all expectations. He’s got a 6-0 record with a 1.11 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a 52-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ration in 56.2 innings of work. It might seem crazy that anyone might give the southpaw-starter advantage to NYM’s David Peterson, here, but he’s been more effective at inducing ground balls (55.8%) than Fried (51.6%). Peterson is coming off two straight quality starts, and doesn’t have a blow-up scar on his game log yet.
So of course, you say, tonight’s the night he’ll one of them gets shelled. I believe it’ll be Peterson. The Mets’ 2025 lineup does have a .252 batting average against left-handed starters, but they’re 12-12 on the road, and Fried is good enough to suffocate that team BA. This lineup whiffs hard against Fried. Pete Alonso has struck out 33% of the time in 36 at-bats against Fried; Brandon Nimmo, 41% in 27; Juan Soto, 33% in 27; Jeff McNeil, 19% in 31; Francisco Lindor, 21% in 28; and Starling Marte, 24% in 21.
