Sunday evening baseball in the shadow of the mountains! Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Diamondbacks and the Rockies.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies prediction, preview
Arizona opens as a clear favorite in this NL West clash, with the Rockies struggling at 7-37 and sporting the league’s worst ERA (5.90). Chase Dollander (2-4, 6.88 ERA) takes the mound for Colorado, and his inconsistency will be heavily tested by Arizona’s red-hot lineup. Dollander has posted a 2.38 HR/9 and a 1.47 WHIP in his rookie campaign, both of which match up terribly against a high-ceiling offense like Arizona’s. The Diamondbacks boast a .257 batting average, and rank fifth in runs per game (5.3). Corbin Carroll (14 HRs) and Eugenio Suárez (14 HRs, 37 RBIs) lead the team in dingers. Against Dollander’s shaky numbers, expect these guys to be ready to strike the scoreboard like cobras.
On the mound for the Diamondbacks is Merrill Kelly (4-2, 3.71 ERA), a solid-if-uninspiring option to tame the Rockies’ lifeless attack. Kelly’s 3.42 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 1.06 WHIP are quite good; they showcase his ability to manage games efficiently. His .218 batting average allowed (BAA) this season speaks to occasional dominance, as well, while his 4.37 FIP shows his consistent ability to keep hitters off balance. Note the half run difference, though.
Kelly’s numbers make him a heavy favorite, particularly when facing a Colorado offense that averages just 3.4 runs per game. With Colorado’s 6.88 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, their staff simply won’t hold up against Arizona’s balanced offense.
And, surprise—the Rockies’ struggles extend beyond pitching. They rank 29th in MLB for runs scored per game (3.4), and Hunter Goodman (29 RBIs, .300 BA) has been just about the only good man, statistically, in that entire lineup. The Rockies’ staggering lack of depth and plate discipline (ranking last in strikeouts per game) will allow Kelly to control this game. Colorado strikes out 9.8 strikeouts per game, and Kelly sends 19.9% home whiffing while allowing free passes only 5.8% of the time. He forces ground balls at almost a 45% clip, too.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Arizona is 7-3 in their last 10 against Colorado and has covered the run line in eight of their last nine home games against the Rockies. The Rockies have failed to cover the run line in nine consecutive road games following a win, and their offensive inefficiencies will be magnified here.
Despite Arizona’s struggles with bullpen depth, Kelly’s consistent ability to go deep into games should mitigate potential late-game issues. Colorado’s bullpen is one of the worst in the league, ranking 30th in ERA (5.90) and WHIP (1.60). Arizona’s deep lineup will get to them by the later innings.
With Arizona’s strong pitching and offensive prowess, take the Diamondbacks to cover the run line (-1.5) at home.
Best bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 (-155) vs. Rockies
Kelly kills offenses—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
