Aha! They call it the Vedder Cup. That’s the rivalry. Rock on. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Sunday baseball game between the Padres and the Mariners.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Padres vs. Mariners prediction, preview
Both teams can play at a high level, but Sunday’s showdown at Petco Park boils down to Seattle’s momentum and a potential pitching duel. In this series, the Mariners have dominated, winning the first two games by a combined 9-2 score. Their pitching has utterly neutralized San Diego’s offense. Things finally went to plan two games in a row for Seattle.
The Padres are favored today, but with Bryan Woo (2.84 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) on the mound, the Mariners have a legitimate shot at the sweep. Woo’s 27.4% strikeout rate and 4.1% walk rate highlight his precision, and his .225 xBA against makes him a tough matchup for San Diego’s batters. However, Michael King (2.32 ERA, 0.99 WHIP) counters with equal force for the Padres, boasting a 27.9% strikeout rate and an outstanding 27.5% K-BB rate. His 1.64 ERA at home this season demonstrates his dominance on the mound, with his .187 opponent batting average backing it up.
San Diego’s offense ranks 13th in runs per game (4.58) but hasn’t capitalized on recent opportunities, including two straight losses to Seattle. Fernando Tatis Jr. (11 home runs, 26 RBIs) and Manny Machado (team-high .323 BA) have been quiet in the series, which has hurt the Padres’ ability to string together runs. Their offense is second in strikeouts (303), and while they’ve been solid against righties, they’ll struggle to get going against Woo’s control.
Seattle’s offense isn’t elite but benefits from an effective balance. But Cal Raleigh’s (15 HRs, 31 RBIs) power is the driving force, surprisingly. Despite this, Seattle’s 29th-ranked doubles (56) and .240 batting average still hinder run production. However, with Seattle’s lineup rounding into form, we can continue to expect Julio Rodriguez, J.P. Crawford, and Randy Arozarena to perhaps offer more consistency than they have so far in 2025.
Bryan Woo’s consistent outings, including 19+ outs in four of his last six starts, suggest that his command will keep San Diego’s reeling offense—bounceback-prone albeit—at bay.
Mariners vs. Padres pick, best bet
Betting insights indicate San Diego’s inconsistency in this series, coupled with their recent struggles as home favorites against AL teams (1-3 ATS last four). The Mariners have been superb as underdogs (winning four of the last six games they were underdogs) and have seen the total hit the under in seven of the last ten meetings between the two. Woo’s ability to pitch deep into games and King’s dominance at home combine to set up a low-scoring contest.
The total under 8.5 is the clear play for me here. Both pitchers have the stuff to neutralize these offenses, and with both teams trending under in recent matchups, this game should stay tight. King’s ability to silence Seattle combined with Woo’s form against a Padres lineup that has struggled against righties recently leads me to favor the under.
Best bet: Padres vs. Mariners under 7.5 total runs (-110)
I’m thinking a 3-1 game—tail it with me in the DKN betting group here!
