Thursday doldrums here for tonight’s MLB DFS slate in terms of volume. The primary showdown slate tonight, MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st], has just eight teams (four games) from which to draft players for your lineups. You’ll be able to choose between players from the Braves vs. Reds, Rays vs. Phillies, Angels vs. Blue Jays, and Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers games. I’ve provided links to my predictions and picks for all the aforementioned games. Below, however, we’ll focus on DFS analysis for my top three pitchers for tonight’s barren slate of Thursday night matchups.
To paraphrase DKN Staff Writer Zach Thompson re. the methodology for this exercise:
Before we get into the rankings, a quick note about what to expect. I’ve selected my top [three] MLB DFS pitcher picks from the slate and tried to hit a variety of price points. Depending on what the rest of your roster looks like and how much risk you can tolerate, you should select the options that best fit your roster build. Based on lineup constructions, ownership projections and value expectations, these are the top [three] that I’m targeting for my lineups. You can choose your own adventure and combine whomever.
And, as a reminder: set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]!
1. Yashinobu Yamamoto ($10,000)
It feels really questionable to roll with a pick so chalky from the get-go, but Yamamoto is that five-digit-DFS-salary good so far, even against a Diamondbacks offense that many folks still believe is humming. It’s really not.
Here are some notes from my game prediction on Yamamoto and his matchup against the Diamondbacks tonight:
[Yamamoto]’s 49 strikeouts against just 13 walks show elite command, and his .160 opponent batting average underscores his ability to neutralize hitters. In fact, his groundball rate of 68% against two-strike counts and his 78% groundball rate on non-fastballs both rank first among qualified starters in the league.
The Diamondbacks, with a batting average of .248 and a subpar .428 slugging percentage, have struggled against elite pitching all season. They rank 17th in the league in wOBA (.320) and have a 22nd-ranked strikeout rate of 22%. This approach plays right into Yamamoto’s strengths. The matchup between Yamamoto and [Diamondbacks starter] Brandon Pfaadt (5-2, 3.79 ERA) heavily favors Los Angeles. Pfaadt has been decent, but he’s given up seven home runs and allowed a .553 slugging percentage on non-fastballs—numbers that don’t bode well against the power-laden Dodgers lineup.
Given the Diamondbacks’ slide, despite Corbin Carroll’s best (ridiculous .633 SLG in 2025 so far), Yamamoto’s price feels right. Even Carroll has a ground ball rate above 40%; Pavin Smith’s BABIP is in the process of a violent regression; Eugenio Suarez has a 30.9% whiff rate despite all those home runs.
Yamamoto’s up against a slew of batters who’d been treading in above-average waters and are now getting dragged down by the ball-and-chain that is their own poor approach. He’s backed by a lineup that can generate wins even on off nights for the starters. Of which Yamamoto has had very few so far.
With such a limited slate tonight, this is the guy around whom you should be building your lineup.
2. Chris Bassitt ($8,500)
A lot of me really wanted to choose Luzardo (9,000) for the Phillies here, but it’d make this list too top-heavy. It’s not like Bassitt’s much cheaper, but the primary difference is that while Lizard and the Phillies have to beat back the pesky young Rays, Bassitt and his floundering Blue Jays just need to best the lowly Los Angeles Angels. Should be fine, right?
Here, Jays fans have PTSD flashbacks to Jorge Soler’s Blue-Jaytorade bath after the walk-off double. There was even an extra bucket of bubble gum in the dugout. Someone dumped that on him, too.
Bassitt’s last three starts haven’t been good at all. He’s failed to reach six innings but surrendered at least six hits and three earned runs in all of them. Chalk that up to the two home runs he surrendered in his last two starts. Seeing as he’s given up four dingers in the last two games but hasn’t allowed more than one walk nor four runs in any start, Bassitt’s ability to minimize damage sets him up well against the Angels tonight.
Here are some notes from my game prediction on Bassitt and his matchup against the Angels tonight:
Against the Angels, Bassitt has historically been dominant, sporting a 3.61 ERA and a solid 7-3 record in 13 starts. The challenge for Bassitt tonight is to avoid the kind of pitching hiccups that have contributed to his recent rough patch—hitters going yard. With the Angels’ offense ranked 28th in batting average (.216) and struggling mightily in Trout’s absence, Bassitt is in prime position to limit their scoring.
Pitcher vs. team splits are almost as unreliable as batter vs. pitcher splits these days, but we love that he’s got such a good history against this team, however, and that they’re utterly hopeless when it comes to hitting the ball over large sample sizes.
Bassitt is generally good at avoiding the long ball, so we’ll chalk up the four over the last two games to the fact that he played at Yankees Stadium and hosted a red-hot Guardians offense. He’s still got a 9.8 K/9, too. Even if he doesn’t get you the win, here, he should be good for at least five-to-seven strikeouts.
In Bassitt we trust.
2. Nick Lodolo ($6,700)
Again, it’s so hard not to recommend Schwellenbach ($7,700), here, who’s Lodolo’s opponent on the bump. But there’s been a lot more getting Shellenbached for one of the Braves’ two Spencers, and not enough schwing-and-a-miss stuff, you know what I mean? As a Schwellenbach owner in many leagues, I’ve got my reasons to believe this on-the-rise right-hander might not be set up for as much success against the Reds as Lodolo is against Atlanta. (Even though I do like Atlanta in this matchup!)
His 3.27 ERA isn’t sparkling, but it catches and reflects the light just fine. Not to mention, it’s bloated by his most recent start against Washington, in which Lodolo was on the business end of a Schellenbaching—six of his 15 earned runs on the year came in that start, good for 40% of his entire ERA. He ranks in the 89th percentile among starters in chase rate (34.1%) and has only allowed seven walks on the year. That’s good for a 4.0 BB%age, which is good for the 93rd percentile among qualified starters.
Players like Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, and Matt Olson would need to turn it on tonight in order for Lodolo to be overpriced, here. Olson’s advanced metrics point to a late-Spring power surge, but I doubt it happens tonight against this big Cincinnati lefty.
Lodolo’s 1.07 road ERA is a little bit more indicative—though far too sparkling, in this case—of what he can do when he shuts down offenses in free-fall. I have the Braves winning and covering this game tonight, but that’s based on value. So, too, is this recommendation for Lodolo in tonight’s DFS slate. At $6,700, he might be the best value on the whole bill, given the ceiling of which he’s capable.
Last reminder: set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st]!
