The Los Angeles Dodgers enter Thursday’s matchup with a red-hot form that no team in the NL West seems able to match. With a 25-12 record, the Dodgers have been rolling, fresh off a dominant 10-1 win over the Marlins and boasting one of the most ridiculous offenses in baseball. Despite their success, their pitching staff, led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, remains their true backbone. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers prediction, preview
Yamamoto ranks first in the MLB with a 0.90 ERA, and his 0.93 WHIP is sixth, making him a formidable challenge for any lineup. Meanwhile, the Arizona Diamondbacks (19-18) are trying to navigate a season plagued by inconsistency, especially against top-tier competition. Their pitching staff, while solid at times, hasn’t been able to withstand the relentless offensive pressure the Dodgers bring.
Yamamoto (4-2, 0.90 ERA) has been arguably the most dominant pitcher in MLB this season. His 49 strikeouts against just 13 walks show elite command, and his .160 opponent batting average underscores his ability to neutralize hitters. In fact, his groundball rate of 68% against two-strike counts and his 78% groundball rate on non-fastballs both rank first among qualified starters in the league.
The Diamondbacks, with a batting average of .248 and a subpar .428 slugging percentage, have struggled against elite pitching all season. They rank 17th in the league in wOBA (.320) and have a 22nd-ranked strikeout rate of 22%, which plays right into Yamamoto’s strengths. The matchup between Yamamoto and Brandon Pfaadt (5-2, 3.79 ERA) heavily favors Los Angeles. Pfaadt has been decent, but he’s given up seven home runs and allowed a .553 slugging percentage on non-fastballs—numbers that don’t bode well against the power-laden Dodgers lineup.
Pfaadt’s 1.24 WHIP and 4.36 FIP further suggest his susceptibility to being hit hard by potent lineups like the Dodgers’.
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks pick, best bet
Onto the bats! In a lineup full of diamonds, Mookie Betts has been key to the Dodgers’ success, with his consistency in both power and contact. He holds a .258 batting average with five home runs and 18 RBIs, providing a steady presence at the plate. Betts has a 12.2% walk rate this season, showcasing his plate discipline, which will be crucial against a pitcher like Pfaadt who has a 7.8% walk rate. Betts’ track record against Pfaadt is solid (4-for-11, including an extra-base hit); he could be in store for another big night in a season full of them.
Meanwhile, Corbin Carroll is the one consistent bright spot for Arizona, as the revitalized young star leads the team with 11 home runs and a .613 slugging percentage. Carroll’s 5.3% walk rate and 26% strikeout rate portend some potential issues against Yamamoto’s elite command, especially given his .125/.192/.208 slash line against him in 24 at-bats. However, even his power may not be enough to lift Arizona past a well-rounded Dodgers squad.
There’s clear value in backing the Dodgers on the runline here. With their top-tier pitcher on the mound, a potent offense that has crushed right-handed pitching, and a favorable matchup against Pfaadt, they should control the game. The Dodgers rank third in MLB in wRC+ (139) over the last week, and they’re second in slugging percentage (.462) and OPS (.785) since last season.
The Diamondbacks have been inconsistent, and with their ERA at 4.47, they’ll likely struggle to contain Los Angeles’ depth. The Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 games, with an average of 7.9 runs per game, further solidifying their offensive edge. Dodgers runline it is.
Best bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+105) at Diamondbacks
Dodgers keep bludgeoning—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
