Hunter Greene may have buoyed the Reds to a narrow victory last night, but Cincinnati is still only middling on the road. It’ll be Spencer Schwellenbach for Atlanta, who’s gotten—ahem—shellenbached, so to speak, the last few starts. Below, I’ve got my preview, prediction, and best bet for this Thursday night baseball game between the Braves and the Reds.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Braves vs. Reds prediction, preview
The Atlanta Braves are back at home with momentum, aiming to close out the series in style. They’ve bounced back after a sluggish start to the season, yet inconsistencies remain. Their offense, underperforming for most of the season, needs to capitalize on any scoring opportunities, especially with their home crowd backing them. With Spencer Schwellenbach (1-3, 3.92 ERA) on the mound, the Braves are hoping for a solid performance to keep the momentum rolling against Nick Lodolo (3-3, 3.27 ERA), whose performance has been solid but not without its blemishes.
Schwellenbach enters this matchup looking to rebound from a rough outing, but his ERA is still respectable. The Braves’ offense has struggled for consistency but boasts powerful hitters like Austin Riley (.289 AVG, eight HRs, 25 RBIs) and Matt Olson (.227 AVG, six HRs, 19 RBIs), both capable of providing the spark the team needs. Ozzie Albies and Marcell Ozuna will need to step up as well, particularly with Ronald Acuña Jr. still sidelined.
Lodolo, while boasting solid numbers with a 3.27 ERA, is coming off a rough outing against Washington, where he allowed six earned runs. But he’s been far more reliable on the road, posting a 1.07 ERA in his away starts this year. However, facing a lineup like Atlanta’s, Lodolo will need to be at his best. Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl will need to keep up their strong performances to make any impact against Schwellenbach’s reliable pitching.
Reds vs. Braves pick, best bet
The betting trends back the Braves’ dominance in this spot, particularly at home. They’ve won five of their last six games following a loss at home against National League opponents. The Braves also hold a favorable head-to-head record against Lodolo, winning three of their last four against left-handed starters like him. Meanwhile, the Reds have struggled on the road, dropping four of their last five games. Their offense has been inconsistent, with only De La Cruz providing consistent production.
Given Atlanta’s recent form, their dominance at Truist Park, and their offensive firepower, they should come out on top here. The Braves have shown they can control games at home, even if their offense isn’t firing on all cylinders. That should correct itself soon, anyways; all advanced metrics point to an absolute surge from Olson soon.
Best bet: Braves -1.5 (+110) vs. Reds
Schwellenbach gets bach on trach tonight—tail it with me in the DKN Betting Group here!
