The second round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs will continue on Monday and the slate will close with the Oklahoma City Thunder visiting the Dallas Mavericks for Game 4 of their best-of-seven series. Tipoff for this Western Conference showdown is set for 9:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on TNT.
Dallas was able to take a 2-1 series lead on Saturday, downing OKC in a 105-101 victory in Game 3. This was a tight ballgame throughout the afternoon and the Mavs managed to gain the upper hand in the fourth quarter and keep the Thunder at bay until the final buzzer. They continued to get big offensive contributions from P.J. Washington, who dropped 27 points in the win and has led Dallas in scoring in back-to-back games.
A big reason for the Mavericks pulling ahead in the series is their ability to create extra scoring opportunities, particularly on the offensive glass. Dallas was +13 in offensive rebounds in their two victories, a stark contrast from when OKC had the edge in that category in Game 1. Combine this with them being +11 in points off turnovers and you get a team that is doing a good job capitalizing off Thunder mistakes.
On the injury front, Luka Doncic (knee/ankle) is listed as questionable for the Mavericks.
Dallas enters the game as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, accompanied by a total of 215. The Mavericks are listed as a -120 moneyline favorite, making the Thunder a +100 underdog.
Thunder vs. Mavericks, 9:30 p.m. ET
Pick ATS: Mavericks -1.5
Dallas is 54-37 against the spread this year and currently has the second-best cover rate in the entire league. I think the Mavs add to that tally by covering as a home favorite tonight and taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. The Mavericks haven’t necessarily dominated the Thunder, but the last few games we’ve seen a poised, veteran team capitalize on the lapses of a talented, but younger team that hasn’t been on this stage before. I’ll predict that this critical showdown will play out similarly to Game 3.
Over/Under: Under 215
Both teams are shooting under 47% for the series and the defense should get tighter as they become more familiar with each other’s tendencies. It may even be a struggle for both teams to crack 100 points here, so I’ll lean towards the under cashing.
