College football is off to an exciting start, but it’s been a tough season in the early going for me from a betting standpoint. The Week 3 card is one of the softest of the season, but there are some spots jumping out to me on DraftKings Sportsbook. You can find my tweets with plays I put out a bit earlier in the week here, but I have added to some here in the article.
Arizona State at Texas State +2 (-110)
1.5-units (LOSS)
Thursday (7:30pm ET)
I’m a big fan of this Texas State squad, and they began the season with a very lackluster win over Lamar. Sloppy play and turnovers killed the Bobcats, but they squeaked out the win. It created a great buy-low spot against UTSA in Week 2, and the Bobcats woke up in a big way — a 49-10 win in a near pick’em game. Now Texas State welcomes in an ever more notable opponent, as Arizona State is off to an impressive 2-0 start.
The Sun Devils smashed Wyoming in the opener, and then went on to defeat Mississippi State by a touchdown in Week 2. Both pretty solid victories, but has Arizona State actually been dominating these games? Or getting fortunate and then front running? The Sun Devils have no turnovers this season, have been getting out to leads, and then racking up rushing yards (587 in two games). Against a more talented Texas State team, Arizona State will likely need to air it out more. Welp, quarterback Sam Leavitt went just 10-for-20 for 69 yards last week against Mississippi State. That won’t cut it in this one.
Now Arizona State goes on the road for the first time this season, playing on a short week. Texas State has the higher ceiling of these two teams, and should be hyped up to host a primetime Thursday game against a notable opponent. The Bobcats should be able to force some mistakes here, and get the Sun Devils out of their comfort zone. Getting out to a lead here would be huge for the home team, and put Arizona State in a place they haven’t been yet this season.
Memphis +7 (-120) at Florida State
1-unit
Saturday (12pm ET)
You can checkout my full breakdown on this game by clicking right here.
Notre Dame Team Total UNDER 28.5 (-125) at Purdue
1.5-units
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
I’m sure Notre Dame is not having a pleasant week of practice after falling to Northern Illinois in the home opener, which is one of the biggest upsets you’ll ever see in college football. This sets up a game the Irish desperately need if they want to have any outside shot at the College Football Playoff. ND won a grinder at Texas A&M to begin the season, but I felt that game told us more more about how poor the Aggies are offensively. I see another grinder here, particularly on the ND side.
In a game in which Northern Illinois found ways to protect the ball and grind some clock, the Irish has way more problems than they did opening up on the road at Texas A&M. Riley Leonard looked awful in his first home game as the quarterback of the Irish, tossing a pair of interceptions and getting dinged up along the way.
We don’t have much to go on with Purdue, but the Boilermakers certainly haven’t done anything to make us think that they can’t hang in this game. Purdue played in Week 1, and beat Indiana State by a final of 49-0. Now the Boilermakers have had a bye week to prep for an Irish offense that’s averaging a mere 18.5 points so far this season.
This total just seems too high for an offense that has to go on the road for the second time this season, now playing with even more pressure. Should be a rowdy atmosphere in which we see the Irish escape with a low scoring victory. But I would not be stunned to see an upset yet again. ND is as solid as they come on defense, but fade this offense while we can.
Texas A&M at Florida +3.5 (-110)
1.5-units
Texas A&M Team Total UNDER 24.5 (-110)
1-unit
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
You can find my full game breakdown by clicking here.
West Virginia ML (-125) at Pittsburgh
1.5-units
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
Read my full analysis on The Backyard Brawl here.
Utah State +20 (-110) at Utah
1-unit
Utah Team Total UNDER 30.5 (-110)
1-unit
Saturday (4:30pm ET)
This number is on the move, which is why I put the play out earlier in the week. Utah’s quarterback, Cam Rising, injured his hand in a victory last week over Baylor. We’ve now received word that Rising is expected to miss this game, although it feels like he could return for a massive game next week at Oklahoma State.
Assuming the Utes are without Rising here, this becomes the ultimate “just grind out the win” type of game. Utah scored 23 points at home against Baylor on Saturday, all of them when Rising was on the field in the first half. The offense went on to get shutout at home in the second half with Isaac Wilson under center.
Now Utah goes on the road for an in-state rivalry game without their QB, and a huge lookahead spot the following week. I’m not calling for the outright upset here, as Kyle Whittingham will have a terrific game plan. Not to mention Utah still has an elite defense. But Utah State was shutout on the road at USC last week, which generally means we should see their best football in a big home game the following week.
It’s a bit of a mystery who will start at QB for the Aggies, as former Ute, Bryson Barnes, has received the first two nods. But Iowa transfer Spencer Petras is waiting in the wings, and has a chance to play on Saturday. The lack of clarity will require more game planning on Utah’s part, and adds another wrinkle to this game. I’m not expecting Utah State to light it up either way against this Utah defense, but I am expecting a poor offensive showing from Utah. This could be a game we also look to play an under in.
Indiana ML (-145) at UCLA
1-unit
Saturday (7:30pm ET)
This isn’t the best spot for Indiana, but I’m convinced enough that this is worth a short moneyline play on the far superior team. Like some of the other teams we’ve discussed in this article, UCLA is off an early Week 2 bye. The Bruins barely won in comeback fashion in Week 1, playing as big favorites at Hawaii. Given that Hawaii was very poor in its season opener in Week 0, this was not a good look for the Bruins. That said, everyone knows the trip to Hawaii can be a tough one to deal with.
The Hoosiers haven’t played anybody yet, but have been very solid through two games. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has looked strong, and the running game maybe even better. The results have been a 31-7 win over FIU, and then a 77-3 trouncing of Western Illinois. The Hoosiers bring back 20 starters to this team, and feel very well polished in their first season under Curt Cignetti. Meanwhile, the Bruins are in a bit of a rebuild with Chip Kelly out the door, and the move to DeShaun Foster.
So while Indiana does have to travel out west to play a team that just underperformed and went on bye, I do think the talent gap in this one if large enough to trust the Hoosiers to get the victory.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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