The Aggies and Gators suffered embarrassing Week 1 home losses, and as expected, bounced back against far inferior competition in Week 2. Now Texas A&M makes the trip to The Swamp to begin SEC play against the Gators. Let’s break this one down below.
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Texas A&M at Florida +3.5 (-110)
Saturday (3:30pm ET)
In some ways, this is a difficult game to handicap, yet it’s also so simple. Let’s go through some of the moving pieces to begin. Conner Weigman, the Texas A&M starting quarterback, is listed as questionable for this game. If he can’t go, Jaylen Henderson would step in and start at QB. Weigman looked dreadful against legitimate competition in Notre Dame, while Henderson saw real action for the bulk of three games last season for the Aggies. I’m just going to call this one a wash at quarterback. I don’t trust Weigman if he starts, and would be fine with that result. It would also be a very tough start for Henderson on the road to open SEC play, particularly against these hungry Gators.
On the Florida side, we’ve seen two quarterbacks so far this season. Graham Mertz really struggled against Miami, but was solid all season for the Gators in 2023. Meanwhile, a talented freshman QB in DJ Lagway was tremendous for Florida in Week 2, throwing for over 450 yards and three touchdowns against Samford. Not the best competition, but at least a good way to get the freshman’s feet wet. I would lean towards playing Lagway in this game, but Metz’s experience could also prove valuable. There’s a chance we see both QB play for the Gators. Either way, I give the advantage to the home team.
I don’t feel we learned much about Texas A&M in a 52-10 win over McNeese State. The Aggies really asked nothing of the QB, and just lined up and ran the ball at the Cowboys — three players ran for over 65 yards, and they combined for five rushing touchdowns. I think the A&M offense should look much more similar to what we saw when it could barely move the ball at home against Notre Dame — a loss that did not age well this week, with the Irish falling at home to Northern Illinois as 28-point favorites.
This spot reminds me a lot of Week 3 last season, when I had the Gators +7 at home against Tennessee. Florida looked awful in the opener at Utah, then got a meaningless win in Week 2. Sharp money came in on the Gators and they closed +5, ultimately upsetting the Vols 29-16 at The Swamp. The only difference in that one was that Tennessee was probably a better team than this Aggies squad.
Texas A&M’s last victory on the road was back in 2021, priced as a double digit favorite at Missouri. Since then, the Aggies are 0-10 in road games, including four of those losses priced as the favorite and one of them a pick’em. I think the Gators are the better team here, and show up in a big way Saturday at The Swamp.
PLAY: Florida +3 (or better) and Texas A&M Team Total UNDER 25.5
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