It has been a disaster of a start to the season for FSU. Nobody needed a Week 2 bye more than the 0-2 Seminoles, who need to rip off 10 straight victories if they want to go over their preseason win total of 9.5 Enter a Memphis group who is off to a 2-0 start, and the Tigers have their eye on a College Football Playoff spot.
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Memphis +7 (-115) at Florida State
Saturday (12:00pm ET)
This game is a pretty simple handicap. There’s two ways to look at it, and you’re pretty firmly a believer in one side of the other. Florida State is off to a dreadful start this season, already 0-2 in ACC play, losing both games outright as double-digit favorites. After going from Ireland to a Monday night home game, the Seminoles got a much needed bye. So out of the bye, does FSU put it together, leaving them tremendously undervalued? Or is this just a lost cause, and FSU will be a strong fade all season (or at least until the number is fully adjusted)?
I’m obviously taking the anti-FSU approach here, as I feel this team just isn’t going to find it. The Seminoles opened the season with a 9.5 win total, and it’s already down to 6-flat. If oddsmakers felt this was a fluke and FSU was going to be any good, this number would be 7/7.5. From where the number is set, and the eye test with FSU, this team is not good.
I’m not a believer in DJ Uiagalelei, who looks like he might need to be benched through two games. The drop off from Jordan Travis is massive at the QB position. But even outside of quarterback, the Seminoles are dealing with downgrades across the field. They can’t pass the ball, and while the running game was decent at times against Georgia Tech, it was nonexistent against Boston College — FSU rushed for 21 yards, while the Eagles gashed for 263 yards on the ground. Florida State was a combined 4-for-17 on third and fourth downs, and BC controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes. Making FSU one dimensional and getting a lead makes it really tough for them to stage a comeback.
Meanwhile, FSU has been dreadful stopping the run, and that’s how Memphis can not only cover, but make a play to win this game. In a cover over Troy last week, the Tigers ripped off 211 rushing yards — led by a 17-125-2 line from their senior RB, Mario Anderson. If they can continue to run the ball, along with solid QB play from Seth Henigan, Memphis will be in this game. This is a veteran team that returns 17 starters (10 on offense), and will be up for the challenge here. Look for a good start from Memphis, and the Tigers finish the game with a strong rushing attack.
PLAY: Memphis +7 or better
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
